BOSTON (CBS) – We’re known for our winter storms in New England. But even though they’re much less frequent, hurricanes are arguably the number one risk to property here with the capacity to inflict huge amounts of damage in a short amount of time.
It’s been a while. The last hurricane to make landfall here was Bob – 30 years ago. And for a “major” Category 3 or higher, you have to go all the way back to Carol in 1954!
That said, even so-called “weaker” hurricanes or tropical storms can have a high impact, like Isaias in Connecticut last year
After 2020’s record season with 30 named storms, what are the experts calling for this time around?
One of the biggest overall factors is located not in the Atlantic, but the Pacific! Years with El Nino can produce high wind shear, which decreases the number of storms in our basin. La Nina years lower wind shear, leading to hyperactive seasons like last year.
For the upcoming hurricane season, neither La Nina or El Nino conditions are in place. “La nada,” if you will.
We also find lots of warmer than average water in the Atlantic, though not in the main development region just yet.
The expectation is for an above-average hurricane season. But here’s the biggest takeaway in any year – it just takes one. Quiet seasons can conjure up one awful storm. Busy ones can mostly head out to sea.
.@NWSCPC is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.
— NWS Boston (@NWSBoston) May 20, 2021
Each year, we want to prepare like it’s our year. And hope that it isn’t!