By Sarah Wroblewski

BOSTON (CBS) – A Valentine’s Day storm will be a minor event, however there is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY posted for the south coast, Cape and Islands for a mixture of snow and ice that may create some slippery conditions on untreated surfaces through Sunday morning.

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Light snow impacted the southeast Saturday night, with the best shot of patchy snow accumulations of a coating to 1″ before a changeover to freezing rain.

On Sunday, expect a cloudy day with a light wintry mix scattered at times. Best chances of mixing will be for southeast Massachusetts with mainly snow showers north and west. The intensity of the precipitation will be quite light on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will reach the lower 30s in central and northern Massachusetts to the mid-to-upper 30s for southeastern Massachusetts.

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Storm #2…Monday-Tuesday

A little more uncertainty given we are a little over a day away. However, we have been eyeing this one because the stakes are much higher than Sunday’s storm.

Indications now continue to show an initial wave out in front of the main storm which could bring some light snow to a wintry mix to our area on Monday with just some minor accumulations of a coatings up to 1″ of snow. Once again, untreated roads may turn slippery.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

The main storm looks to arrive Tuesday morning and be an all-day event. This storm has the potential to bring heavy snow, ice, rain and coastal concerns. Latest trends have pushed warmer air into the system, especially aloft, which mean it could be more of a significant icing event for parts of the area away from the coast. This could cut snow totals for some, but leave a slippery and dangerous mess across the region.

Ice accretion could lead to damage, travel disruptions and power outages (still too early for specific snowfall total amounts, but a plowable snow is likely in parts of New England). It is also possible more sleet and or rain mixes in which would then cut down on ice amounts.

We’ll have to continue to monitor the track closely, as any shifts will ultimately determine what type of precipitation we see and where. Overall, liquid content in this storm is about .5″ to 1″, so there is plenty of moisture to work with..

Storm #3 Thursday-Friday

This forecast is tenuous at best…but the signal has been there on the models for yet another storm in this timeframe.

Early indications are that this storm may track farther west then Tuesday’s.

Could very well end up starting as snow late Thursday and transitioning to rain on Friday.

Will that be it?

There are several big atmospheric changes going on in the 7-10 day range. The blocking over the North Atlantic (NAO going neutral to positive) will be easing and the Polar Vortex looks like it may tighten up again in the Arctic (AO going neutral to positive).

This MAY allow for La Nina to take over in late February and March and bring much milder temperatures to our region. Remember that “Stratospheric Warming” episode that occurred in mid-January? That has been the main driver behind all the recent cold and snow for the mid latitudes in Europe and North America. Those “episodes” tend to have lasting effects for about 6-8 weeks, which puts us right about at the end of February.

So…I would say ride out the next 1-2 weeks and maybe, just maybe, we could get a taste of early spring.

Sarah Wroblewski