Keller @ Large: How Pandemic Has Impacted Markey-Kennedy Race

BOSTON (CBS) - It was billed as one of the hottest primary races in the country, an unexpected showdown between longtime incumbent Sen. Ed Markey and challenger Joe Kennedy, the Fourth District congressman.

Then all of a sudden, the pandemic intervened, nearly costing Markey a place on the ballot by ending traditional signature gathering and forcing both men into online campaigning.

So two months later, where does this thing sit?

There were two new polls late last week. Emerson College has Kennedy up 2; a UMass/Lowell poll had him up 16. But one thing both polls agree on: the race is up for grabs, with plenty of undecided voters.

A couple of interesting crosstabs: the UMass/Lowell survey found Markey up 15 points among self-described liberals, reflecting the strong support among party activists the incumbent demonstrated at party caucuses last winter. But Kennedy was up 30 points among moderates, perhaps a sign of his support among organized labor and recognition of the family name.

And in the Emerson poll, Kennedy led Markey 59-41% among women, a gap Markey will have to address between now and September 1. (Yes, the primary falls a week before Labor Day, and with universal availability of mail-in ballots, a good chunk of the vote may be cast before then.)

The generation gap on display in this race - Markey is 73, Kennedy is 39 - has been evident in the candidates' online campaigning, with Kennedy seeming notably more relaxed. But Markey has shown high energy and killer instinct, shutting Kennedy completely out in his hometown Brookline caucus vote.

Just recently, Kennedy took advantage of his nearly two million dollar cash-on-hand advantage to run the race's first TV ads, and upcoming TV debates - including an August 11 showdown in the WBZ-TV studios - may prove decisive. Markey is a strong, experienced debater, and he needs a good showing to overcome the relatively low visibility that has plagued his career; he has yet to hit 50% in any poll, always a warning sign for an incumbent. And Kennedy has to sharpen his case for firing a longtime employee without glaring cause.

When this race started, some of us wondered how the debates would break through the height of summer, with voters more interested in vacation and the Sox. No need to wonder now - this is shaping up to be must-see TV.