Watch CBS News

Andy Dalton Released By Bengals; Does He Make Sense For Patriots?

By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston

BOSTON (CBS) -- Yikes. We all got here kind of quickly, don't you think?

OK, well. Deep breath anyway. Here goes: Andy Dalton, New England Patriots. How's it sound to you?

If your first instinct was to hold in your upchuck, then you're surely not alone. For months now, as the future of the quarterback position in New England has been scrutinized, analyzed and speculated on, one name that constantly came up was none other than Andrew Gregory Dalton.

And now, after news broke Thursday that Dalton will officially be released by the Cincinnati Joe Burrow Bengals, the idea of Dalton replacing the legendary Tom Brady is at least a possibility.

(Yes, the Patriots have no cap space, but they could always still trade Joe Thuney, thus clearing more than $14 million off their books in one swift moment.)

The question really is ... does Bill Belichick view Andy Dalton the way most of us view Andy Dalton, or does Bill have some magic glasses where he sees a talented quarterback with untapped potential on account of having been stuck on the worst organization in sports for nine seasons?

It didn't take long, also, for this to spring up.

Yeesh!

And, well, if we're all going to explore the unlikely possibility of the Patriots signing Cam Newton, then it's only right to do the same for Dalton. In the interest of being fair and thorough, let's go ahead and explore.

THE STATS

Stats don't often paint a complete picture, but there's nevertheless plenty to learn from an examination.

In his nine seasons, Dalton really has one statistically excellent season. It came back in 2015, when he completed 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,250 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He posted a career-high 106.2 passer rating that year, more than 14 points higher than this second-best season.

That's really only excelleny by his own standards though. While he did miss the final three games due to a broken thumb (suffered while trying to make a tackle after throwing one of the worst interceptions of all time), he still was nowhere close to the league leaders across the board. He ranked 14th in touchdown passes and 21st in passing yards. That puts a slight damper on his ranking second in the NFL in passer rating.

In terms of peaks, Dalton has only surpassed that 25-touchdown mark twice. He did so when he threw for 33 touchdowns and 20 interceptions in 2013. The Bengals went 11-5 that year and appeared to be serious contenders, but they lost 27-10 to the Chargers in the wild card round. Dalton was 29-for-51 with one touchdown and two interceptions and two fumbles (one lost) that day.

Dalton threw 27 touchdowns and 16 picks a year before, in 2012. Dalton was 14-for-30 for 127 yards with no touchdowns and a pick in that year's playoff loss.

In 2014, the Bengals went 10-5-1, despite Dalton teetering on the edge of a 1-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, with 19 TDs and 17 INTs.

Dalton has had some statistical duds in his career, and unfortunately for him, he's coming off the biggest dud yet. In 2019, he went 2-11 as a starter, completing just 59.5 percent of his passes while throwing 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. His arsenal was, however, quite limited, as the Bengals were in contention for the No. 1 pick before last year's preseason even kicked off.

Overall, here are Dalton's stats:

Andy Dalton, Regular Season
70-61-2 record
62.0% completion rate
31,594 yards
7.1 yards per attempt, 237.5 yards per game
204 TDs, 118 INTs
87.5 rating

Andy Dalton, Postseason
0-4 record
55.7% completion rate
873 yards
5.5 yards per attempt, 218.3 yards per game
1 TD, 6 INTs
57.8 rating

Those postseason stats are just ... daunting. Which brings us to ...

THE STORY

As previously mentioned, the stats don't always tell the whole story. Likewise, the "narrative" on a player can sometimes be incomplete or unfair. So let's explore both.

While there may be no scientific measurement on this, the narrative on Andy Dalton is this: He occasionally puts up some decent numbers, but if a game matters, he will turn into the worst quarterback on earth, to the point where the possibility of a team signing him results in an endless stream of Michael Scott "No, God! No, God! Please, no! No! No! Nooooo!" GIFs on Twitter.

Why is that the story? Let's explore.

Dalton was selected with the 35th overall pick in 2011, immediately becoming the starter for a team that finished 4-12 in 2010. The offense wasn't very good (18th in points, 20th in yards), but a top-10 defense and some strong performances from A.J. Green and Cedric Benson were enough to give the Bengals a 9-7 record and a playoff berth. Perhaps this Dalton kid was all right.

Alas, the playoffs came, and Dalton threw for 257 yards (on 42 attempts) with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. He also took four sacks and fumbled once. On the other side, quarterback T.J. Yates had a better game, and the Texans won by three touchdowns.

Fat-forward to year two. Dalton was much better in the regular season, but then he got the Texans in the wild-card round again. He went 14-for-30 for 127 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, good for a 44.7 passer rating. Matt Schaub was the better QB that day.

In 2013, after an 11-5 season, Dalton had the aforementioned three-turnover faceplant vs. the Chargers in the wild-card round.

2014 brought another playoff berth, and another blowout loss for the Bengals. Dalton went 18-for-35 for 155 yards and a 63.4 rating that day. He didn't throw any picks, but he also didn't throw any touchdowns. And he lost a fumble.

Dalton broke his thumb in 2015 and hasn't really gotten to play in a "big game" since.

Outside of playoff games, Dalton has been at his worst in prime-time games, when the whole country is watching. He's 6-15 as a starter at night, with a 58.5 percent completion rate, 26 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

Andy Dalton career passer rating

Early window: 88.1
Late-afternoon: 96.2
Night: 79.2

Against Cincinnati's prime rivals in the AFC North, Dalton has been underwhelming.

Andy Dalton Career Stats

Vs. Pittsburgh
3-13 record
58.4% completion rate
19 TDs, 14 INTs
77.0 passer rating

Vs. Baltimore
8-8 record
56.6% completion rate
21 TDs, 18 INTs
76.6 passer rating

Throughout Dalton's career, the Patriots have been the class of the AFC, making it to the conference championship game for the first eight years of his career, reaching the Super Bowl five times during his career, and winning a championship three times during his career. Suffice it to say, playing against the Patriots serves as a solid measuring stick for a quarterback.

Dalton didn't fare too well in his opportunities.

Andy Dalton Career Stats

Vs. New England
1-3 record
64.6% completion rate
4 TDs, 5 INTs
79.6 passer rating

As far as a postseason narrative, an 0-4 record could be the result of some misfortune or bad luck. But his 1-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio shows that Dalton was a large part of the Bengals' problem throughout that stretch of playoff futility.

In his career, he has four games with four interceptions; he's thrown four or more touchdowns in a game just six times. His passer rating is at its lowest in games decided by seven or fewer points, and his passer rating is at its best in games decided by 15 or more points. (His team has been the victor in just 56 percent of those blowouts.)

He's tended to get worse as a season has gone on, too.

Andy Dalton career Passer Rating

September: 91.4
October: 90.6
November: 83.3
December: 84.4
January: 79.5 (2 games)
Postseason: 57.8

Those are statistics, technically, sure. But they are statistics that tell a story. And that story says that if a game matters, you probably don't want Andy Dalton under center.

THE "HIGHLIGHTS"

Woof. Brace yourself.

Every quarterback throws picks, and every quarterback has some plays that just look like utter disasters. Andy seems to have more than most.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Andy Dalton as the Patriots' starting quarterback? It has the same chances of the Bengals actually being inspired by this pregame pump-up speech.

Yeah. Going from Tom Brady to Andy Dalton? That just cannot happen. At least we explored it, though.

You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.

View CBS News In
CBS News App Open
Chrome Safari Continue
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.