What To Watch For When Patriots Visit Texans On Sunday Night Football
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Thanksgiving is officially in the rear-view mirror, which means football season has officially begun in New England. And while a 10-1 record to this point is quite nice, the reality is that it won't mean anything if the Patriots fail to put forth a strong finish to the season.
That's mostly because the Baltimore Ravens are currently on a torrid tear through the NFL. They've won seven straight games, and their last three victories have been won by an average of 36 points. With a 9-2 record and with no sign of slowing down, the Ravens appear to be a very real threat to finish the season with a 14-2 record. And considering they own the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Patriots, that leaves New England with almost no room for error through the final month of the season. (Baltimore does host San Francisco this week and visits a well-rested Buffalo team next week, but the final three weeks of their schedule looks to be rather easy.)
That effort begins in earnest on Sunday night, when the Patriots play the Texans in Houston in prime time. The last time the Patriots were in Houston, they were celebrating their historic comeback in Super Bowl LI against the Falcons. The 2019 Patriots will look to create some new happy memories in that same stadium come Sunday night.
Here's what we're watching for.
An Offensive Awakening
In case you haven't been paying close attention, the Patriots' offense has been struggling lately. After their 33-0 blowout of the Jets in Week 7, they've averaged just 1.5 offensive touchdowns per game in the four contests since. While they did open up a 10-0 lead last week against Dallas, they moved the ball a total of 15 yards combined in their first two scoring drives. Tom Brady has just five touchdown passes (and three interceptions) in his last six games.
While injuries, opponents, and conditions have not helped, times have clearly been better for Josh McDaniels and Brady over the years.
That could be reason to portend doom, if one were so inclined. But this week, the offense should get back to resembling the type of Patriots offense that everybody has been accustomed to seeing over the years.
And that is for one very simple reason: The Texans' defense stinks.
Rather than write anything too long and boring, here's a cold hard look at where the Texans rank in key defensive categories:
Yards Allowed: 20th
Points Allowed: 17thPass Yards Allowed: 25th
Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 22nd
Pass TDs Allowed: 26thOpponent Passer Rating: 27th
Interception Rate: 30th
Interception Total: 31st
Sack Rate: 27th
Total Sacks: 29thRush Yards Allowed: 17th
Rush Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 24thThird Down Defense: 31st
Red Zone Defense: 32nd
Just as a friendly reminder, the NFL has just 32 teams. So ranking between 25th and 32nd in those categories is ... not what Romeo Crennel, Bill O'Brien and the Texans defense is looking for.
What's crazier is that those numbers are where they are despite having J.J. Watt for half of the season. Without Watt, the Texans' defense has somehow gotten even less imposing.
Consider that Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu appear are possible to return, and consider that Brady has completed nearly 80 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and one pick in his last three regular-season games against the Texans, and this should be the week that the Patriots' offense rediscovers itself. (Watch for James White, in particular, to present problems for Houston's defense.)
If not? Well, you can portend all the doom you want.
Deshaun Vs. D
To this point in the season, the Patriots' dominating defense has only had to face one quarterback (Dak Prescott) who ranks in the top 12 in the NFL in passing yards. This week, Deshaun Watson becomes the second.
Watson has put forth a very solid third season as an NFL quarterback, completing 69 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions, averaging 264 yards per game and 8.0 yards per attempt. He's also maintained his dual threat capabilities, rushing for 301 yards and five touchdowns on 58 rushes (a 5.2-yard average).
The overall numbers are strong, but Watson's still had an up-and-down season from a week-to-week perspective. He was outstanding vs. Atlanta (426 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs) and at the Chargers (351 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs), but he struggled mightily from a passing perspective at Baltimore (169 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT), against Jacksonville (159 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs), against the Panthers (160 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) and at the Chiefs (280 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs). Even in those uglier games, though, Watson managed to help Houston's offense as a rusher (71 rushing yards and four touchdowns in those four games combined, in which the Texans went 2-2).
While the Texans' offense may be formidable with the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller at wideout, Watson may have a hard time getting the ball to his favorite targets. That's because Houston's offensive line has been quite bad this year, as evidenced by the 36 sacks of Watson (only six QBs have been sacked more). The Texans have given up sacks on 9.1 percent of passing plays, and Watson has been sacked four or more times in four games already this season. The Patriots' defense has recorded five or more sacks in a game six times this season.
That will certainly play a factor, as the Patriots' defense has the fourth best sack rate (10 percent) in the NFL. While the threat of Hopkins and Fuller is no joke, the reality is that even moderately decent coverage from Stephon Gilmore (on Hopkins) and likely a double team of sorts on Fuller (perhaps with J.C. Jackson in primary coverage) should prevent the Texans from executing too many deep passes. Jonathan Jones should be able to stay tight on Kenny Stills, too, and if Watson has to hesitate for even a second in the pocket, it could lead to disaster for the Houston offense.
Certainly, when it comes to weapons, the Texans are not short on options. But as long as the secondary plays even close to their abilities, the Patriots' pass rush should have opportunities to create a number of third-and-long situations.
Kicker Problems
Suffice it to say, as the Patriots enter Week 11 with their fourth kicker of the season, the level of appreciation for Stephen Gostkowski has never been higher.
Nevertheless, after Nick Folk had to undergo an untimely appendectomy, the Patriots had to make a move. Instead of re-signing Mike Nugent (who was 5-for-8 on field goals and 15-for-16 on PATs in four games with the Patriots this year), the team opted to sign Kai Forbath.
While Forbath is an experienced veteran, he hasn't kicked in the NFL since last December, when he played three games for the Jaguars. He was 4-for-5 on field goals (with his lone miss coming from 56 yards) and 3-for-3 in PATs during that brief run with Jacksonville, but it wasn't enough for Forbath to earn an NFL job in 2019. That is, until now, when the Patriots found themselves in desperate need for a kicker in a pinch.
In his career, Forbath is 34-for-36 (94.4 percent) on field goals less than 30 yards, 39-for-44 (88.6 percent) on kicks 30-39 yards, 36-for-42 (85.7 percent) on field goals between 40 and 49 yards, and 11-for-18 (61.1 percent) on field goals of 50 or more yards. In 2016, after replacing Blair Walsh in Minnesota, he went a perfect 15-for-15 on field goals.
He was 90-for-92 on PATs prior to the kicks moving back to the 15-yard line, and he's 82-for-91 since that change was made.
That latter part figures to be significant, as Forbath missed five PATs in 2017 and three PATs in 2016. So whether it's potentially costing the Patriots a point, or if it's forcing Bill Belichick into decision-making mode on a fourth-and-5 from the Houston 30-yard line, the lack of Gostkowski will continue to be felt in this one. And if this game comes down to a kick in the final minute, tensions will be awfully high in living rooms around New England.
Beware The Houston Run Game
We tend to be a bit quarterback-obsessed in America these days, but it's important to not discount the Houston running game in this one.
As a team, the Texans are tied for sixth in rushing yards per game (136.9), and they rank third in the NFL with 4.97 yards per rushing attempt. They're tied for 12th in rushing touchdowns, with an average of one per game, with Watson accounting for five of the team's 11 rushing touchdowns.
Carlos Hyde is averaging just under 5 yards per carry, averaging 76 yards per game, topping the 100-yard mark twice, and finding the end zone four times. Duke Johnson presents a dual threat out of the backfield, with his 349 rushing yards (5.4-yard average) and one rushing touchdown to go with his 240 receiving yards (9.6 yards per reception) and two touchdowns through the air.
Of course, the word "weakness" is a relative term when it comes to the Patriots' historic defense, but they haven't been as exceptional against the run as they've been against the pass. The Patriots are allowing 4.58 yards per rush, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. They do rank in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game at 98.4, but that is owed in large part to the team opening up massive leads in the first half of the season. While the Texans don't run the Ravens' offense, Lamar Jackson showed that the Patriots' defense can be quite vulnerable to a team with a good running back and a mobile quarterback.
While Watson, Hopkins and Fuller will receive much of the pub before this game, it may actually be Houston's ground game that gives them the best chance to earn a rare win over the Patriots. (Including the postseason, the Patriots are 10-1 against the Texans, only losing in Week 17 of the 2009 season. Bill O'Brien is 0-5 against his former boss, getting outscored 151-75 in those games.)
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
