BOSTON (CBS) — There’s no denying the first snow of the season is always filled with fanfare and 2019 is no exception. Just as trick-or-treating ended, the conversation on flakes started. But you may want to hold off on getting the bread and milk this time around.

November is traditionally the set-up for how the following winter will play out. If the first few days are any indication, it looks like a rather average and lackluster season ahead. But we can’t base an entire season on just three days. In fact, history shows that things don’t really start up for another few weeks. Massachusetts generally sees its first measurable in mid-late November.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

So, is this early season snow talk actually too soon? Not quite. The earliest measurable snows in Boston and Worcester came on October 18, 2009, and October 8, 1988, respectively. But this conversation may ultimately come to an end. Over the first weekend of November, the more prominent global models (the European and the American) had completely different outcomes. The image you see below is the European model. Being the more aggressive of the two, it suggests rain on Thursday night then a transition to snow moving into Friday morning. If this ultimately comes to fruition, it would result in accumulating snow as far south as the Mass. Pike making for a tricky early commute on Friday.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

We have to take this guidance model with a grain of salt. From Sunday’s outputs alone, it has shifted between less than an inch of accumulation and as much as 6”. That is a dramatic flip-flop and an indication of “low confidence”.

On the contrary, the American model (pictured below) has remained steady with its snow outlook, or lack thereof. The latest information from this model shows little to no snow over the same time period.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

Here’s the bottom line: this will, and should be, the focus of this upcoming week. But, with the information at hand, it is simply too early to nail down the ultimate outcome. The WBZ Weather Team will be bringing you continuous updates to keep you informed for Thursday and Friday. Stayed tuned!

P.S.—it’s going to be very cold next weekend.

Zack Green

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