By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Exec. Weather Producer


BOSTON (CBS) — I’ve spoken to many who have trained for this year’s Boston Marathon and the overwhelming sentiment was that running over the last several months has been relatively easy. Very few days with snow or ice on the ground, especially in the Boston area. Not too many stretches of harsh winter cold. No nor’easters to speak of.

Nonetheless, training during a Boston winter always has its challenges and surely prepares you for anything Mother Nature intends to throw your way. Well, mostly anything. There are those marathons that no amount of training can fully prepare you for.

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There’s been heat, like the infamous “run for the hoses” back in 1976 when temperatures rose into the 90s along the route. And, just seven years ago in 2012, temperatures topped out at 87 degrees, causing many runners to opt out and try again the following year.

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There’s been snow, never a legit snowstorm, but several occasions with snow showers or even squalls reported along the race route, such as back in 1961 and 1967.

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And finally, there has been rain, lots of instances of rain – it is April in New England after all! Perhaps the most memorable rain event occurred back in 2007. Runners awoke to flooded out streets after 2-4” of rain fell overnight. There was even talk of postponing the race. The marathon, of course, went on as scheduled that year but there were lots of soggy shoes.

So where am I going with all this? Well, if you’ve checked out a seven-day forecast recently you may have noticed that one day, in particular, looks quite miserable. That day, naturally, is Monday.

Now just four days out from the event, odds are increasing that this year will be a very wet run in Boston. The chances of a complete miss are lowering. Although it doesn’t look as cold as last year’s run, this year, the weather will once again be a major factor on race day.

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After a beautiful Saturday (temperatures topping out 70+) clouds will be thickening early on Sunday. A storm system will push out of Texas and into the Ohio Valley, likely bringing the first rain drops into New England by Sunday afternoon. The rain coverage will increase overnight and by Monday morning rain will be blanketing our entire region. There are some lingering questions at this point. How strong will the storm be? How far north will the milder air push into New England? Where will the center of the low track – to our west or east?

Related: How To Prepare For A Wet Marathon

These are the nitty gritty details that will ultimately determine the level of misery for runners on Monday.

Official marathon forecast as of Thursday morning:

Rainfall of varying intensity, for most of the day.

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Mild temperatures in the morning due to cloud cover and rainfall arriving late on Sunday. Low temperatures Monday AM will be in the 40s. There will be a push of warmer air during the day on Monday from south to north. The trick is determining how far north the warmer air makes it. . . and frankly it is just too soon to tell. If the front stays to our south, temperatures during the race will likely stay mainly in the 40s. If the front pushes north, we would see temperatures rise into the 50s and 60s.

Winds will also be largely dependent on the location of the front. North of the front winds will be out of the east (off the ocean). South of the front, winds will be south-southwesterly and rather gusty as well. At this point, odds favor a cool, easterly wind in the AM and a milder SSW wind arriving during the race.

We will keep you updated right through race day here on CBSBoston.com and on WBZ-TV!

Good luck to all the runners!

Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ

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