By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Exec. Weather Producer


BOSTON (CBS) – If you are planning on running or spectating on Marathon Monday, it’s best you don’t look at any 7-day forecasts at the moment. Remember last year? It was cold, wet, and raw … and we may be in for a carbon copy this year. Ugh.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

At this point, time is on our side. There is a lot of weather between today and next Monday. In fact, currently the bundle of energy related to next Monday’s storm is strung out over the Central Pacific Ocean about 1,000 miles from Alaska. Needless to say, the forecast CAN change.

I do think we can make some general assumptions at this point though.

This will NOT be a hot Boston Marathon. No “run for the hoses” or fears of dehydration. While temperatures this weekend will be quite warm (currently forecasting near 70 degrees Saturday and near 60 degrees on Sunday), Monday is almost certain to be much, much cooler.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

The questions revolve around the formation, track and strength of a storm system that is forecast to approach our area by late Sunday night.

Currently, our most trusted models are forecasting a direct hit on New England. That would result in a near worst-case scenario. Similar in some ways to last year, a nor’easter type event with the potential for driving, cold rains, strong northeast winds and perhaps some wet snow mixing in.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

Could it miss? Absolutely.

We also could be fringed by a track farther to the south. This would mean much lighter rain and wind, more of a cool, damp, cloudy day (not all that bad for runners).

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

So, long story short… odds favor a chilly and wet Marathon Monday in Boston. But, we are far from locking that in. I would say give it at least another 48 hours, stay tuned to updates and if you are planning on running or cheering, perhaps start thinking about hand and foot warmers!

Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ

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