Will Patriots' Defense Really Improve Without Collins? We Can't Know Until Playoffs
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Everybody's got their own opinions regarding the surprising Jamie Collins trade this week, but when it comes down to it, all we'll ever get out of Bill Belichick is that he did "what's best for the football team."
Often, Bill's version of "what's best for the football team" doesn't entirely jibe with the ideas of most people. He's an unorthodox leader who makes deals when just about everyone else in that position would stand pat.
And, considering he's got a 194-70 record to go with four Super Bowls victories and six conference championships, he ends up being right more often than not.
So, if we take Bill at his word that he only did "what's best for the football team," then we have to imagine that the defense will play better without Collins than it had been playing with Collins.
The problem here is this: We can't possibly know if that's true until the postseason.
As you can clearly see below, the remaining offenses who will challenge the Patriots' defense are almost entirely in the bottom third of the league in terms of points scored and yards per game.
Only Denver manages to fit in the top half of the league in scoring, and the only team that can be considered middle-of-the-pack in yardage is Miami.
The rest is a whole lot of muck.
And, really, that's what the Patriots' defense has faced thus far on the year. Of seven teams they've faced this year, only Buffalo is in the top 10 of scoring offenses in the league at No. 8. Pittsburgh's the next-best at 12th, but the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger when they faced New England. The other five teams range from 18th to 31st.
In yards per game, only the Bengals (sixth) and Cardinals (10th) rank in the top 10. Pittsburgh's at 11, Cleveland's at 15, and the rest are all bottom half.
As it stands at the season's midway point, just one of the top 10 scoring offenses (Buffalo) will have faced New England this year, as their schedule doesn't include Atlanta, New Orleans, San Diego, Carolina, Oakland, Dallas and all the rest of the top-scoring teams in the league.
Partly as a result, the Patriots' defense ranks highly in points allowed per game (16.5, third in NFL). But even despite the soft schedule, they only rank 14th in yards allowed per game and they are 18th in third-down defense. They're tied for giving up the 23rd-most first downs, and they've only forced nine turnovers -- tying them for 17th in the league.
Aside from the points allowed, those numbers paint a picture of a defense that has performed average at best, and quite possibly worse than that based on the weak opponents. Belichick wants that defense to improve, but even by season's end, based on the lack of quality opponents, the numbers won't mean a whole lot.
If the New England defense manages to climb into the top 10 in the key categories where they're currently struggling, it will be a positive step. But it won't really be proof of much, other than the Patriots' having a soft schedule.
The way this Collins trade will ultimately be judged can't really be decided until January or February. The task for Belichick and Matt Patricia now is to start molding the defense to be ready to be better when the time comes.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
