By: Chief Meteorologist Eric FisherBy Eric Fisher

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Forecasting a New England holiday weekend typically comes with a side of antacid. Mother Nature playing nice when it matters most? Puh-lease! That would just be too easy. But dreams do come true. It looks like the weather is going to cooperate nicely with us this weekend with perfect conditions to enjoy the outdoors and fireworks displays expected to dot the landscape.

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Compared to the last couple of years, we’ll take it. In 2015, we at least lucked out by evening. But the morning and midday hours were mired with clouds and rain before some clearing just in time for the evening show. I still had a complaint though – not a wisp of wind. Fireworks blew, and the smoke lingered. By the middle of many shows there was just an invisible colorful eruption hidden in a dense cloud of smoke. Wicked bummer.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

(WBZ-TV graphic)

In 2014, we had an unusual early-season hurricane. Arthur came up the coastline, prompting a change of date for Boston’s celebration. To avoid the 2″ soaking in the city (and 6″+ which inundated the South Coast with a flash flood emergency), the Pops Fireworks Spectacular was moved to the 3rd. Only problem there? Severe storms were expected. Most of the show went on without issue, until the end. The concert was cut short to try to sneak in the fireworks, but with a line of severe storms racing in from the west at 60mph there wasn’t quite enough time to get everyone indoors. A race for cover ensued, but many got soaked and battered by strong winds from the fast moving system.

In 2013, a sweltering heat wave. July started off with five straight days in the 90s. The fourth featured a high of 94 degrees in the city. In 2012, it rained. Soooooo…..you get the idea. We haven’t had much luck in celebrating the good old U-S-of-A.

2015 Planner 4 Part

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I’m an optimist, so I’m just going to say that all this means this year will be all the sweeter! A big area of high pressure is expected to settle on down from Canada, bringing us our third straight beautiful weekend. The storm track gets suppressed just off to our south again, as has been the case for weeks now. So for the BBQs, the beach vacations, the fireworks displays, and the camping trips – we are good to go.

The only thing to keep an eye on is a front that will be pushing offshore on Saturday morning. There are still some timing issues with it, meaning it’s not entirely clear how fast it will get offshore Saturday morning. We may still be dealing with some leftover showers/storms in the morning before clearing out and drying out for the afternoon. At the same time, a cold pool of air aloft may help clouds to fill in across northern New England, and also pop a few showers/storms. This would be most likely across the higher terrain of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. The good news is that even if the front isn’t a fast mover, any activity will be long gone by evening fireworks displays. This front also will help deliver a blast of drier air, with dew points lowering as the day goes on. Higher elevations will stay in the 70s, while eastern MA should be able to reach 80F.

2015 Lakes and Mountains2015 Cape and Islands Forecast

The dry air will make for a very comfortable Saturday night, and Sunday looks like a total gem. Highs in the 80s, low humidity, lots of sunshine, some decorative cumulus clouds. That is l-i-v-i-n my friends. With a westerly wind, the warm temps will go straight to the coast without  much sea breeze influence.

2015 Dewpoint Chart(3)

For the 4th, the air mass moderates even more and so we should be able to pump up the heat a bit more. I’m thinking mid to upper 80s with bright skies and still low humidity levels. An ideal summer day by all accounts, though it’ll be a little toasty if you’re sitting out along the Charles all day waiting for the show. Definitely bring some water and/or gatorades to keep hydrated.

4TH_OF_JULY2016 Red Sox Forecast Home 2DAY

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So there you go! A pretty quiet and fantastic stretch of weather for us to relax and celebrate. If you’re wondering about the week that follows, there is still a bit of uncertainty as to how it will pan out. Some guidance is torching us with the hottest temps of the summer (90s), while other guidance is bringing a storm/rain threat. The overall flow looks warm but somewhat zonal…which may open the door to thunderstorm clusters traveling in from the west. I’m going hot and mainly dry for now but we’ll have to see how the exact steering currents evolve and whether they’ll steer some much needed rain our way.

Eric Fisher