Rick Porcello Deserves His Praise
By Johnny Carey, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- At times, the 2016 season has felt eerily similar to 2015.
Inconsistent starting pitching has cost the team games, just like last year.
The bullpen has squandered big offensive outputs, just like last year.
One piece of the 2016 puzzle few had high hopes for, however, appears to have left 2015's struggles in the rear-view mirror.
His name is Rick Porcello, and he looks nothing like last year. Right?
No, not really. Rick Porcello actually looks a lot like he did toward the end of the last year, and that's great news for the Red Sox. He just looks nothing like he did in the first half.
Prior to the season, I wrote about how Porcello could still become exactly who the Red Sox originally signed him to be. I argued that while he'll likely never be an ace worth over $20 million a year, there should still be hope that he could regain his 2014 form.
So far this season, Porcello hasn't looked like his 2014 self -- he's looked much better.
Through four starts, Porcello is 4-0 with a 3.51 ERA, and while that's very good on its own, those basic stats don't show just how great he's actually been.
He ranks fourth in the American League in WHIP, sporting a nifty 0.935. The only pitchers he trails in that category are Chris Sale, Drew Smyly and Matt Latos.
Porcello is also fourth in the AL in K/BB ratio.
He's striking out 10.52 batters per nine innings, which is good for fifth in the AL. The encouraging stats go on and on.
Most importantly, he's provided much-needed innings during a stretch in which the bullpen has been asked to mop up far too many disappointing starts.
What makes Porcello's success most encouraging is that it's not just over a tiny sample size -- it's becoming a trend.
Dating back to last August, Porcello has pitched six innings or more in 12 consecutive starts.
Over the course of those 12 starts, Porcello is 8-4, allowing three or fewer runs in nine of them.
His second-half ERA in 2015 was 3.53 -- only .02 higher than his current 2016 ERA.
All of this is made even more surprising given Porcello's career early-season struggles. Porcello was horrendous in the first half of last season, including an April that saw him finish with a 5.34 ERA.
It shouldn't have been a complete shock as March/April have been an absolute disaster for Porcello throughout his career. In the first month of the year, Porcello has a 5.66 career ERA and a .289 opponents' batting average.
This April, he owns a 3.51 ERA and .200 opponents' batting average.
The best season of Porcello's career, 2014, was the only other April in which he pitched even relatively well. That year, an early 3-1 record and 3.96 ERA in April helped propel him into a successful season.
But is it realistic to expect Porcello to continue pitching this way?
Well, in 36 career May starts, Porcello is 20-9 with a 3.52 ERA -- only .01 off of his 2016 ERA.
His 2015 second half ERA (3.53), 2016 ERA (3.51) and career May ERA (3.52) are almost identical. They're too close to ignore, and certainly provide some hope for Porcello's upcoming starts.
While no one saw this coming from Porcello after a horrendous spring training in which he finished 0-2 with a 9.77 ERA, Rick Porcello deserves credit for keeping the Red Sox rotation and bullpen afloat early on.
For all that's gone wrong in the rotation, including injuries to two starters and the big-time struggles of David Price, the Red Sox are still above .500.
A lot of that is thanks to Rick Porcello.
Johnny Carey is a senior at Boston College. You can find him on Twitter@JohnnyCarey94
