Watch CBS News

Warm November, Lackluster Winter?

Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook

The questions are pouring in about winter, and understandably so. Not only was last winter historic, but it was quite costly for many New Englanders. Snow removal, ice dams, burst pipes, damaged plants, and more all stacked up to a winter that was destructive for many homeowners. Even the most passionate of weather geeks can appreciate that while big storms are exciting, they can also have a very negative effect on peoples lives. So safe to say many would probably not mind a break from several rather harsh winter seasons in a row. As we lead up to the cold season, we'll continue to take a look at some of the factors setting up to impact our weather. For this post, let's take a look at what's in front of us right now - a warm November!

 

warmeststart

A graphic designed by NWS Taunton showing the warmest first weeks of November in Boston. The leading week, 1994, had highs of 69, 63, 65, 77, 79, 66, and 58. We've had 62, 64, 73, 60, 76, and 73 so far. Expecting 67 (midnight) for Saturday's high. So we will be very close to the #1 spot, pending how cool it gets in Boston before midnight Saturday-Sunday.

 

dominant

Pattern has featured a strong eastern ridge with a digging trough in the west, and indications are that this will keep on going throughout the month. Source: Weatherbell

It most certainly hasn't felt like the flakes are around the corner these past few days, and won't anytime soon. Most towns topped out in the 70s on Tuesday, and then did it again on Thursday and Friday. It's very likely we'll end up with one of the warmest starts to November ever recorded. The cause of this unseasonable warmth is a dominant ridge over the eastern U.S., which is keeping the storm track north and the colder temperatures out west. Going forward, the signal is for this pattern to keep re-establishing itself all month long. While there will certainly be a couple of chilly air outbreaks, the majority of November is looking mild and very tolerable. Temperatures will more often than not stay above average, and we may be able to creep into a collection of warmest Novembers on record in the Boston area.

WARMNOV1WARMNOV2

Why does this matter? Because warm Novembers have a solid track record as a winter snowfall indicator. Let's play the game and say that this November will end up a Top 10 warmest on record, and then examine the current Top 10 warmest in Boston. The data may be alarming for snow lovers, and encouraging for those looking for a break! We've never had a big snow year in Boston after a very warm November. These results are extremely consistent - all of the seasons were below average (44") except 1975, and that year just barely squeezed it out. The majority are in the paltry 9-24" range.

WARMNOV_SNOW

It's also interesting to note that at least 5 of these seasons occurred in El Nino years. The three before 1950 we're not sure of because there was no true El Nino monitoring that far back. Two of the winters were during the La Nino phase of ENSO, including the one decent snow season of 1975-76. It may help to explain why 1975-76 produced average snowfall and nearly 10" more than all these other seasons. A strong La Nina helps to produce more abundant cold and snow in the Northeast.

ninoyears

List of all observed El Nino/La Nina years and their intensities. Source: Jan Null's ENSO site

How about taking a look a little farther north? For example, Burlington, VT. The results are a lot more variable. The average seasonal snowfall in Burlington is 81", and the spread during these same years is all over the place. Four of the seasons featured above average snow, six of them below average. But none of them came in with a Top 20 snowiest winter on record. Perhaps the takeaway here is that the signal isn't as strong, but it still points to less than spectacular snow as the subtropical jet stream and subsequent moisture feed stays south of New England most of the time.

nino

Now the pattern leading up to winter is just one of many factors, and certainly there's a lot on the table this year. It won't be as easy an outlook as last winter when all signs were flashing for cold and snow. But a warm November, paired with El Nino, is looking to stack the cards against a repeat of 2014-15. And let's be honest - of course it's not going to be as bad as last winter! We've had MANY send in notes that they've seen forecasts for the snow apocalypse this year. This is extremely unlikely. Only two years have ever topped 100" of snow in Boston since the 1870s. Will they happen back to back now? Doubtful. We had the coldest month ever recorded for most of New England last February, and one of the coldest winters on record. To do it all over again is a feat that just hasn't happened before, and there are very few factors indicating it's in the cards this winter.

So keep in mind that all winters feature snow, all feature cold days, and all feature a lack of daylight. That's just winter, folks. We'll continue to look at the rest of these variables and come out with our full winter outlook in just a couple weeks here on WBZ. Until then, enjoy the end to what's been a gorgeous fall.

novoutlook

NOAA's November temperature outlook, made by the Climate Prediction Center.

View CBS News In
CBS News App Open
Chrome Safari Continue
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.