Hurley: Better Check The Brakes On Mookie Betts Hype Train
BOSTON (CBS) -- All aboard the Mookie Betts Hype Train. Choo-choo!
That's been the story this year in spring training, and with good reason. The second baseman-turned-outfielder put together a solid rookie campaign last year, when he hit .291 with five home runs, 12 doubles, 18 RBIs and an .812 OPS in 213 plate appearances. And he's been absolutely ridiculous this spring, hitting .467 with a 1.367 OPS on the strength of eight doubles, two triples and two home runs in 48 plate appearances. Yes, that's a .467 batting average -- 21 hits (including 12 extra-base hits) in 45 at-bats.
As you might expect, the 22-year-old has garnered some attention this spring, and it's generally believed that his performance in Florida will force the Red Sox to keep Rusney Castillo -- their $72 million investment -- in Pawtucket to start the season.
It's all well and good, and it's not outrageous to feel optimism about Betts' 2015 with the Red Sox. He probably will have a good season.
Even with that established, the expectations being placed on Betts might already be pushing the limits of absurdity.
Betts' own teammate, Shane Victorino, has compared Betts to Andrew McCutchen, going all the way back to last year.
"I call him 'Little Cutch. Watch him out there. His movements, everything, he's like a little McCutchen," Victorino said last July.
Victorino has also reiterated that assessment this spring.
That's the same Andrew McCutchen who has finished in the top three of voting for the National League MVP for the past three seasons, winning the award in 2013. Over the past four seasons, McCutchen has hit .304 with a .909 OPS, averaging 25 homers, 88 RBIs and 22 stolen bases. He also won a Gold Glove in 2012. There's really only one Andrew McCutchen. It's borderline impossible for anyone -- Mookie, Matthew, Michael or Martin -- to live up to those expectations.
But Victorino's not the only member of the Red Sox to make such grand plans for the outlook of Betts' career.
"I'd even go further -- he's better than McCutchen at that time in McCutchen's career," David Ortiz told Ken Rosenthal.
"I also talked to Hanley [Ramirez] and he compared [Betts] to McCutchen, and said they're going to guarantee he makes the All-Star team this year," Jon Heyman said this week.
And when the players talk, others will obviously follow suit.
"Betts is a short-supply commodity: the skilled toolshed," wrote Yahoo's Jeff Passan. "Which is to say not only does he pack the raw, natural tools of speed and hitting ability and surprising power, he complements them with the skills of polished players, like an advanced approach at the plate and enough feel in the field to have seamlessly switched from shortstop to second base to center field over the last three years."
Passan added: "He could just be an outlier, a sample of one who happens to translate. Stars are stars that way, one of one, limited editions, incapable of replication."
A scout told The Boston Globe, "This guy could be an All-Star. This guy could be an All-Star this year. He could have been Rookie of the Year last year if he'd had more at-bats. He could be their best player."
Their best player! In a lineup that includes David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli (five players making an average salary of $16 million this year), Mookie Betts may be the their best player.
No pressure there.
Baseball Prospectus agrees, projecting Betts to lead all Red Sox position players in WAR in 2015.
"By BP's reckoning, Betts's future is now, despite the presence of Victorino, Allen Craig and Daniel Nava in the outfield mix," Gordon Edes wrote back in February. "The website, which is highly regarded for its statistical analysis, bases its projections on a scenario in which Betts gets nearly 470 plate appearances in right field, with another roughly 120 plate appearances in center.
"Betts projects to bat leadoff if he indeed is an everyday player, and would play a big part in what BP sees as a major revival by the team's offense."
Again, no pressure.
Reading so many overwhelmingly positive prognostications for Betts, it'd be easy to get swept up. But there are a few important reminders that would suggest a more cautious approach would be wise.
For one, Betts is 22. The Globe's Alex Speier put together a story in early January which examined when a player is truly in his prime. He noted that of all players in their age 22 seasons from 1984-2014, only 1.8 percent were able to post a WAR of 2.0 or better. One-point-eight percent. Baseball Prospectus forecasts that Betts will post a 3.6 WAR.
Could Betts be the rare exception, the aberration that consistently contributes all season long? Could he be the next Ken Griffey Jr. or the next Alex Rodriguez? Sure. Anything is possible. But history suggests it's not the safest bet.
Now, you could easily point to just last season, when Betts accumulated a 2.1 WAR in just 52 games. Surely, that's a sign he can do it. Of course. But there are still mitigating factors that helped allow that to happen.
He joined the big club at the end of June for a 10-game, two-week stint. When he made his MLB debut, the Red Sox were seven games under .500 and seven games out of first place. He went a modest 8-for-34 (.234) before being sent back down to Triple-A.
He was called back up on Aug. 1, and he remained with the Red Sox for the remainder of the season. At that time, the Red Sox were 12 games under .500 and 13 games out of first place. He played in 42 games from that point forward, posting a .303 batting average and .844 OPS. It was impressive, to be sure, but none of it came in a meaningful game.
That's not to discredit what Betts accomplished, but it is a consideration. You'll remember that a 23-year-old Will Middlebrooks looked like an All-Star in his rookie season in 2012, aka the Bobby Valentine year, aka the worst Red Sox season since 1965. In that environment, Middlebrooks was able to hit .288 while belting 15 homers and 14 doubles, and also driving in 54 runs in 75 games played. Middlebrooks was unfortunately hit by a pitch that August, breaking his wrist and ending his season.
After that, in games that actually mattered, when he was facing opponents' starters and better relievers, things didn't go quite so smoothly for Middlebrooks. He batted .227 in 2013, eventually losing his job in the postseason to Xander Bogaerts. Last year, Middlebrooks hit just .191 while bouncing between Pawtucket and Boston. His OPS went from .835 in 2012 to .696 in 2013 and .522 last year.
Now, Middlebrooks' struggles don't necessarily mean that Betts will follow suit. They do, however, serve as an illustration of how different life can be for a young hitter in a non-competitive season. They also show that early success is not guaranteed to turn into future success. Considering the Red Sox this year should be contending for an AL East crown, or at least a wild-card spot, it's fair to expect the pressure and the degree of difficulty to be dialed up for Betts in that batter's box.
It's just not as simple as taking a young player who performed well for a short stretch as a rookie and plopping him atop a stacked lineup and expecting everything to run smoothly. Rarely do situations work out so well in baseball.
To be sure, Betts looks good. He may even be great. But given the height of expectations being laid out for him this month, the engineers of the Mookie Hype Train might want to double-check the brakes before that engine leaves the station. Nobody wants to see a crash.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
