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Hurley's Picks: Peyton Manning's Football Mortality On Full Display, While Bengals Ride Unexplainable Magic

BOSTON (CBS) -- Is Peyton Manning all done?

That's been the question that's filled the final week of the 2014 NFL regular season, thanks in large part to an utterly pitiful performance by the future Hall of Fame quarterback on Monday night in Cincinnati. Against the team that always comes up small in the grandest moments, Manning managed to melt into the biggest puddle of them all.

The reaction to Monday's meltdown has been strong and swift, with many people genuinely asking whether Manning is done, whether he will retire following his next inevitable playoff failure.

My reaction to their reaction has likewise been pretty simple: Haven't you been watching this guy for the past three years?

Manning's complete lack of arm strength is nothing new. Since joining the Broncos, Manning has delivered passes with the velocity of a Pop Warner passer ... who's using his left arm ... and who hasn't slept in a couple of days and is pretty groggy.

The guy's had no arm whatsoever ever since his neck surgery. He and his high-flying offense completely abandoned the passing game in Foxboro last year during the regular season because it was windy. (Tom Brady threw for 344 yards that night, compared to Manning's 150.) He threw two picks in the Super Bowl, posting a QBR of 24.4 and a passer rating of 73.5. Whenever he is even slightly uncomfortable, like he was in Buffalo a few weeks ago, he loses all sense of his great ability. And perhaps now more than ever, the man looks absolutely terrified when the prospect of getting hit presents itself. His feet start tapping, his body weight shifts to his back foot, and he relies solely on his aforementioned dead arm to deliver passes. And when he does that, he gets picked off.

It's nothing new, and it's not even a knock on Manning. If anything, I believe the fact that he's been able to post monster numbers and demolish the touchdown record last year just makes his prolific passing ability all the more incredible. He's relied on his pre-snap reads, his anticipation and his perfect touch to float deep balls into the tiniest of windows, and he's done it to the tune of 39 touchdowns (1st in NFL), 4,454 yards (4th), a 66.8 completion percentage (6th) and a 102.9 passer rating (4th).

We should all be so lucky to be as washed up as ol' Peyton.

Of course, stats can be deceiving, and there is good reason to be worried about how effective the Denver offense can be come playoff time. But that's not anything new. Ask his receivers who have had to wait and wait ... and wait for his passes to get to them, leading to Wes Welker getting concussed in the preseason and then rocked into pieces in New England, leading to Emmanuel Sanders getting concussed in St. Louis, leading to Demaryius Thomas absorbing more body contact than he'd probably like. This has been happening for much longer than this past week.

What also isn't new is that I had a losing week in picks. Things have really gone sour for me, but you already knew that. So let's see how well I can do on a week when a handful of teams are playing for everything and everybody else is playing for exercise (and contract incentives). Should be a piece of cake.

(Home team in caps; Wednesday lines)

Indianapolis (-7) over TENNESSEE
Last week, the Colts took on a "Well, we have absolutely no reason to play this week" approach, and as a result they got mauled. I think if they're smart -- and Chuck Pagano strikes me as a smart man -- that they will take a "We have a lot to improve upon if we want to enter the playoffs with any shred of confidence" approach this week.

And fortunately for them, they're going up against the team of tackling dummies.

(By the way, Adam Vinatieri is a legend. In case you didn't know.)

San Diego (+2) over KANSAS CITY
What happened to the Chiefs? Seriously. Their only win since the middle of November has come against the Raiders. This was a team that was once 7-3 and had knocked off the Patriots and Seahawks. Now they're just ... kind of sad.

But as I've said many times, when you hire Andy Reid as your head coach and you employ Alex Smith as your quarterback, you're only going to get so far. And this year, "so far" means 8-8 with plenty of free time for vacations in January.

MIAMI (-6) over New York Jets
I predict multiple Jets players, hopeless after an embarrassing season and coming off the emotional cliff of almost beating the Patriots but ultimately failing to do so, will get ejected from this game for doing some awful things to Miami players. The Dolphins might want to sign Richie Incognito to a one-week contract, just for some protection.

MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Chicago
I still don't know why the Bears started Jimmy Clausen at quarterback last week. What is the grand plan there? It takes a terrible situation and does the impossible by making it worse. Then again, there's a lot about the Bears I don't understand, so it's probably best not to strain any brain cells trying to figure it out.

I do know this: I am probably less than 10 percent successful in picking Vikings games this year. That has to do with the fact that despite their 6-9 overall record, they're 10-5 against the spread. Granted, I'd like them better as underdogs (they're 8-4 as dogs) than favorites, but I'll roll the dice with Ted Bridge and see what happens.

Buffalo (+5) over NEW ENGLAND
A Week 17 divisional matchup at home with absolutely nothing on the line for Bill Belichick's team? I've got five words for you: Doug Flutie drop kick game.

Doug Flutie
Doug Flutie (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

That was alternatively known as the "Matt Cassel throws the potential game-tying two-point conversion about a mile out the back of the end zone so that the Patriots can lose on purpose and host the Jaguars instead of the Steelers in the playoffs" game. But that one's a mouthful.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Philadelphia
The Eagles have no reason to even attend this game. The Giants don't either, but they've been living that life for about two months. They've got experience in the art of sleepwalking through football games. They're good to go.

Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "People [who pick the Giants] are stupid."

Note: Just because your pick turned out to be correct doesn't mean you're not stupid.

New Orleans (-4) over TAMPA BAY
Invoking my "refuse to talk about the NFC South" bylaw: Sometimes I question the importance of writing about sports. But then I look at entertainment headlines. Like this one, for example: "Rihanna, Selena, & More Celebs Head Home For The Holidays."

Some poor soul had to write a story about human beings who were going home for the holidays. After seeing the headline on Google News, I had to click it, because what could this story possibly be? It turned out to be a short write-up about how lousy it is to spend holidays at home, followed by a photo gallery of celebrities at home. I didn't know who half of them were, but I can confirm that they were indeed home.

Good stuff, right? Thanks, Google News. That was important.

Oh, also, Avril Lavigne "slammed" rumors that she's in rehab, Clint Eastwood is single (?), and Rush Limbaugh is not on board with Idris Elba playing James Bond. Writing about sports suddenly seems like academic work. Let's get back to that.

WASHINGTON (+7) over Dallas
Jerry Jones, this is why you can't have nice things.

"No, we have the franchise -- for sure. Not at all. You're talking about Dez? No, we have the franchise alternative -- which I thought everybody was aware of."

Those were the words of the owner who can't ever keep quiet on anything, stating that the Cowboys will use the franchise tag on Dez Bryant if the two sides can't reach a contract agreement.

Now I know that Jerry has grown accustomed to his team's season ending after Week 17, but this year they're actually going to the playoffs. And they might even have a chance at this thing.

But I'm sure the tempered, calm people in Dallas will not turn the owner's comments into a major distracting storyline.

BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Cleveland
I hate taking Baltimore, a team that's softer than dog poo and lost to the Texans last week, but I'm pretty sure that I'm the starting quarterback for the Browns this weekend. And I don't like my chances.

HOUSTON (-10) over Jacksonville
Games like this one right here ... this is why alcohol was invented.

Carolina (+4) over ATLANTA
"Refuse to talk about the NFC South" bylaw: Congratulations to the Denver Broncos for leading the NFL with nine Pro Bowlers. That's great. Considering the season appears to be going down in flames (that's a strong assessment, sure, but this team just lost to Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton on national television, so ... ) at least those nine guys will have a trip to sunny Arizona to look forward to.

Oakland (+14.5) over DENVER
That half-point is what this pick is all about. For all of the negative things I've said about Peyton and the Broncos in this very story, that doesn't change the fact that they're still roughly 39 times better at football than the Raiders.

Provided there's no wind or cold or precipitation, Manning should be able to throw three touchdowns and silence some of that "he needs to retire ASAP" talk. So I'm thinking the Broncos win this one 35-21. And my half-point wins the day.

RQFLWP: "The Bills' defense is the real deal. The 32nd-ranked Oakland offense is not the real deal."

Note: I got what I deserved for putting my faith in the Bills in December.

GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Detroit
The Packers need to win to earn a first-round bye.

The Lions need to win to earn a first-round bye.

One of these teams is actually capable of pulling it off.

The other one of these teams is the Lions.

SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Arizona
It's going to be a very busy Sunday for me. After I quarterback the Browns, I'm going to have to hustle to get out to Santa Clara in time to quarterback the Cardinals. Brutal schedule, but the money's good, so I can't complain.

SEATTLE (-13) over St. Louis
The Rams are sneaky good this year. Well, they were sneaky good, until everyone took notice and then they subsequently went into dive-bomb mode and resorted to throwing cheap shots and starting brawls against the dreadful New York Giants. What a mess that was last week.

Now the Rams get to head to Seattle, where no road team ever wins, to face the defending champs who are operating at full power and will no doubt be motivated by that early-season loss in St. Louis. There aren't enough fake punts in the playbook that could help the Rams this weekend.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
As the world's foremost proponent of "Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis can't win any important games ever," I've decided to flip script and double down. After seeing the unicorn parade on Monday night, and after seeing the football gods randomly reward the Bengals with a rainstorm during the Broncos' would-be comeback drive, what other choice do I have?

And with that, after the Bengals win the AFC North, the fun of the regular season will be over. It's been a long and trying one for me in terms of these picks, as I've gone from 58-33 with zero losing weeks through the first third of the season to 65-79-4 with seven of 10 weeks being losing ones. It's the type of maddening change of directions that simultaneously makes you want to quit the game completely and also anticipate Week 1 to start it all over again.

It's a challenge, and it's a fun one. The playoffs will be all right, but when the book closes on the regular season and the lights go out on the final 16-game slate of the year, it's always a bittersweet moment.

Last week: 7-9
Season: 123-112-5

Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.

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