Fall Is Here! But Will It Feel Like It?
So long sweet summer? Maybe not. Don't get me wrong - I love fall. Oktoberfest beers flowing, trees laden with apples, pumpkins dotting New England farmland, a fire of foliage. But there's something melancholy about saying goodbye to our warm days and late sunsets. I can't make the sunset later without the help of an airplane...but I can tell you that warm weather is NOT saying goodbye just yet!
So long sweet summer? Maybe not. Don't get me wrong - I love fall. Oktoberfest beers flowing, trees laden with apples, pumpkins dotting New England farmland, a fire of foliage. But there's something melancholy about saying goodbye to our warm days and late sunsets. I can't make the sunset later without the help of an airplane...but I can tell you that warm weather is NOT saying goodbye just yet!
Come again - you say? It's pretty chilly out there this morning. Well let's get through these next couple of days first. While not 'warm' per se, today will be spectacular. The idyllic and fitting start to autumn in New England. High pressure is taking control, and with plenty of sunshine we'll reach high temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. I'd call that pretty perfect. If you work outdoors for a living, these past few weeks have been a blessing.
Heading into Wednesday and Thursday our winds will turn more onshore, cooling us down a bit. Highs should stay in the 60s both days as an east wind dominates (cooler and more breezy along the coast, milder inland). We *may* be able to squeak out a few raindrops across the SE corner of the state late Wednesday night into Thursday, but I'm not too bullish on it yet. A weak coastal storm will be attempting to drift up the coast, and could stretch far enough north to bring some showers. Unfortunately, it won't be nearly enough. Conditions have been bone dry since the start of August (for some areas, reaching back even farther) and we could use a soaker of a system. Looking for out at some longer-range data, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon.
Rainfall has only been about 25% of average over the past 60 days. Most towns will likely not see any rain until October! Source: NOAA
The end of the week is when we start to kick into high gear. A ridge of high pressure will build toward the Northeast, and air will start warming aloft. Even though I'm not seeing a strong westerly wind component Friday through Sunday, we should still be able to hit some warm numbers (especially inland). The coast will probably not get quite as warm due to local sea breezes knocking back temps near the coast.
ECMWF showing a strong ridge covering much of the nation by the end of the week, West Coast excluded. Source: WSI EnergyCast
Full sunshine on Friday should get us into the 70s (keep in mind the average high in Boston by the end of this week is about 70º). As the weekend kicks off, there is strong agreement that high pressure will still be the main player and that temps aloft, say around 850mb, will hit the +14C range. That's warm stuff for late September! This may translate into highs near or possibly even above 80º for the weekend. So don't put away the beach gear just yet! You may get another shot. We'll be fine-tuning those numbers as we get closer, but as it stands now the first weekend of fall could feel a heck of a lot more like those summer days.
The warmth is nice, but we need rain! There's a very high likelihood that most of our area won't see a raindrop until we turn the page to October. If that happens in Boston, it will end up being the driest September in 57 years, and one of the Top 10 driest ever recorded. Some towns outside of Boston have seen even less. The incoming warmth will only exacerbate dry conditions...lots of brown grass out there heading into fall. It may end up being a particularly nasty brush fire season. We'll all have to be very careful with open flames if this pattern continues. Plus, dry begets dry. Hopefully October will give us a nice drenching rain across the area.
