By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

The National Weather service has issued a Flood watch for 1 PM Sunday through Monday morning for southern New England, excluding the Cape &  Islands..
Upper level winds from the SW are advecting a warm balmy airmass up the east coast. But cooler air is charging back into the eastern half of the country so This warm balmy air is being lifted up, cooled, condensed into steady to heavy rains which are extending from Vermont to the Carolinas today. These upper level winds ,which help to steer the weather, have been moving from south to North up the Ohio valley keeping the rain west of us for most of the weekend. The whole trough is gradually shifting east, and so the chance of rain are increasing this afternoon especially for northern, western and central regions. The coast will manage to squeeze out a pretty nice Sunday with breaks of sun and temps near 60 in spots.
500 mb Vort Map
The low and Vortmax currently in Georgia will race up the coast and track through Southern new England tonight. As we have been saying…tonight is where we are expecting the heaviest rain to occur with periodic heavy downpours and maybe some embedded thunder. This is an energized vort…which help to spark the severe weather in the Gulf last night. The low level jet will be racing through eastern MA and RI tonight. Heavy rains may briefly drag down some of these strong winds to the ground for brief gusts to 50 which may cause some scattered tree damage. 
So the heaviest rain is expected to occur in western New England with the potential for 1.5-3″, while lighter amounts are expected east…with solid 1-1.5″ amounts with lesser amounts towards the Cape. Below is the 6 hour Flash Flood Guidance.
Anything above three inches will certainly cause problems…luckily most will not see that much. But there are a few areas who could reach the threshold necessary for flash flooding to occur.  Towns like Medford, Melrose, Winchester, Belmont and Stoneham are vulnerable to urban flash flooding due to excessive runoff.They are in an area that only need about 1.2″ in 6 hours to see some flash flooding. That is definitely possible. the heavy rain with the snow melt which has been going on all weekend could be just enough to flood some basements and create flooded roads early tomorrow morning. Another area vulnerable would be southwestern Connecticut.
So we could see some urban street flooding tomorrow morning during the morning commute. After that, the water and snow melt will continue to funnel into area rivers and streams which will be approaching flood stage and even going over Monday. Below  are the river conditions from the Northeast River Center. There are several rivers which will be on the rise and cause low land flooding in the next few days

Observed River Conditions

Rivers to Watch

Shawsheen at Wilmington

This river is expected to go above flood stage tomorrow and see moderate flooding by Tuesday. At this stage, 8 .2 feet…


Assabet at Maynard

The Assabet will likely go a foot above flood stage and stay just below the moderate flooding level


Numerous other rivers and streams will see minor flooding…luckliy this storm will be quick moving and spare the region of any major flooding problems. The snow pack is still very much in place across central and Northern new England. The snow will absorb much of the rain..eventually refreeze again. But the amount of water in the snow depth is still a serious concern and will need to be watched carefully in the coming weeks ahead. Hard to image us getting out of this predicament unscathed.

Northern New England is a whole other ball game. Todays rain will be changing to snow in the far north with a mix of sleet and ice in the interior valleys. Where there is a change to snow…6-12+” Some ski areas will be reporting over a foot of new snow tomorrow. The freezing rain is more likely from Brattleboro and Springfield, VT to Lebanon and Meredith, NH to Farmington, Skowhegan Bangor Maine. Roads tomorrow morning across the north may be very hazardous for travel where we are having these ptype issues.

Winter Storm Warning

The storm will be quickly exiting Monday. A brief wintry mix change over is possible south before the precipitation shuts off. Temps will be falling through the day Monday. Temps will be below freezing by sunset.

High barometer cool air from Canada will make for a seasonal chilly midweek with sunshine…before our next system arrives to end the week. The pattern has slowed down some and a more complex look is in place. This will need a closer look which I will do tonight…for now…I need a nap!

Comments (52)
  1. rainshine says:

    Thanks for the great blog, Joe.

    Looks like a wall of water just approaching west of Worcester on dopplar radar now.

    I just came in from a nice walk – breezy and mild out – nice! But I am pretty sure winter is not done with us just yet.

  2. Leo says:

    62.4f in east bridgewater

  3. bob says:

    hi joe is it possible to get snow in here in the future

  4. WeatherWizard says:

    Thanks Joe.

  5. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks Joe for the blog. Thankfully there will be no severe weather up here today like there was in Louisina yesterday. The severe weather season is getting off to a quick start down there.

  6. leo says:

    weeks away mazza

  7. ron says:

    Hellcatt keep your big mouth shut

  8. WeatherWizard says:

    On March 19, the moon will be at its closest point to Earth in 18 years, an event that is known as a “lunar perigee”—one astrologer, Richard Nolle, has dubbed such events the SuperMoon,” which means a new or full moon at 90 percent or greater of its closest perigee to Earth. And some believe this natural wonder could spell the start of a moonageddon, with extreme weather, earthquakes and floods.
    The New England hurricane of 1938 happened during lunar perigee.

    1. Jofus says:

      Maybe Harvard will go to the NCAA Basketball Final Four as a result of the “Super Moon”



  9. stan says:

    Once again your forecast is not even close for rain totals.

    1. smitty says:

      but the storm isnt even really underway yet, how can you tell him his totals are wrong when it wont be over until tomorrow sometime??

      1. Stan says:

        Cuz he’s never right.

  10. BAILEYMAN says:

    goodafternoon. Well depending on your location depends on your precipitation type. I think for most of us we are looking at some good rain. I am thinking northern and western areas pick up the rain 1-3 inches and points south inch or less of liquid. The ski areas however will be looking at a good snowstorm with 6 to perhaps 12inches of fresh snow. We will also be dealing with some gale force winds tonight, the wind has picked up in the last half our or so. I also feel this should be a quick mover and be out of here early am. We may even have some sunshine by afternoon. After that it gets cool, though not to bad to take and than we will be ending the week on a rainy note. On my way out and sorry I
    was not able to repost last night. TK still working on Saturday nights meetup. Lol and stay safe and dry. Enjoy the afternoon.

    1. HAL says:

      Thank’s BM. I am on my way up north now for a couple ski days. Will be cool if we see a foot. Enjoy reading your blogs.

      1. Kyle says:

        You may need to dig your way out of there.

  11. southshoretom says:

    great info Joe ! It is pur spring in southeast Mass….. Marshfield is reporting 64F and I believe it. We have been seeing some sun as well. Its beautiful !!!

  12. aqua says:

    57 in marblehead

  13. southshoretom says:

    I dont know if i believe it all, but the long range GFS seems to be showing a sure sign of spring……storms becoming cutoff or moving extremely slowly.

    1. Chris McD says:

      Better believe it! ;)

      However, we could get some snow event on or around the 15th of March as of right now. It seems we could get another brief shot of cold air around that time. Forecasts change frequently though, so keep a look out.

      58 over in Burlington. Down to about 6.0 to 6.5 inches of snow from 10 inches on Friday in the back yard where it was naturally pilled up. A lot of grass showing on the southerly side of front lawn.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      The 12z GFS jumps on that trend quickly. The 12z Euro hints at it too but with a different synoptic setup. I believe it may be partly due to built-in climate biases (especially in the GFS) and the models’ reaction to the beginning of a NAO phase shift. I’m a bit more partial to the Euro’s solution overall.

      1. BAILEYMAN says:

        Topkatt. What time is the meetup on Saturday

  14. JimmyJames says:

    Lets hope its wrong because if we are going to get rain like we are having today and later in the week I want the storm systems to be progressive because I don’t want a repeat of March 2010.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Inside 495 hasn’t seen much of anything yet. I think most of the Boston area sees 1 inch or less between early tonight & mid morning Monday. Heavier totals well off to the W & NW. Flooding impacts again minimal from this system.

  15. manowx says:

    Storm cut-offs and slow movement are typically a characteristic of winter. Storms have been fairly progressive this winter. it usually means the hp cells have not been storng enough to cause blocking. Probably a symptom of increasing co2.

    Speaking of co2, my theory is verifying nicely. Increased co2 coupled with spring insolation is likely to mean less than average snow this March despite the La Nina. This is classic greenhouse effect. Al Gore still dancing in the streets!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Cut-offs are more a characteristic of Spring, not winter.

  16. manowx says:

    The snow is just about gone here in Marblehead. Only piles remain global warming!

    1. Chris McD says:

      I praise global warming during these times. The hell with cold and in with the warmth!

    2. aqua says:

      Hey manowx do u live in Marblehead, I do

  17. manowx says:

    This flood watch is a joke here with just about all the snow gone before rain arrives

  18. manowx says:

    Any -NAO shift will be too little too late for snow lovers. The anthropocene era is upon us. Greenhouse gases will soon rule.

  19. manowx says:

    Cutt-offs a more characteristic of winter than Spring that had been the case before climate change. There are meteorologically factors to increase the frequency of cut-offs in spring. Cut-offs are associated with blocking hp cells. such cells are stronger in winter than spring.

  20. manowx says:

    The argument for cutoffs in spring is the slowing of the jet stream. This may reduce forward miovement of systems but does not increase the frequency of cutoffs which are separate phenomenon from cutoffs. I dont believe there is any data set that establishes cutoffs are more common in spring

  21. manowx says:

    JJ might wish to comment but if he were side with either us he’d being making a big mistake because no statistics exist. It would simply be anecdotal

  22. sam hates snow says:

    Go Greenhouse gases, maybe we will never see snow again, it will like the like the Carboniferous Period on earth or about 300 million yrs ago were all the oil and coal deposits were made. Folks need oil and coal 300 mm from now as well.:)

  23. manowx says:

    Global warming is terrible because it reduces thunderstorms which fix nitrogen into compounds that are essentiall food to pants. Greenhouse gases are to blame.

    1. sam hates snow says:

      Agreed, however, I am not 100% sold that it is man-made, the world went through mini Ice age from 1100 through 1850’s and then warmed up, then in the 70’s we went through some very cold periods.

      Having said that, it is never a good thing to pollute the environment.

  24. teri216 says:

    Went for a ride near the beach today with the sunroof open :) Bring on spring!

  25. manowx says:

    correcting an above post – I believe cutoffs are more frequent in winter than in spring because of stronger hp cells to the north. As I have indicated, the climate sysem may have changed such hp cells to the north are not as strong, therefore the frequency of spring cutoff may have overtaken the frequncy of winter cutoffs. The slower jet stream in spring aiding and abetting. Dont mean to be a highbrow. If anyone has statistics to contradict me, by all means.

  26. manowx says:

    I hate greenhouse gases not because they have caused a significant warming it’s because I have a passion for thunderstorms, I believe these gases are moderating mid-latitude climate such thunderstorms in the bioston area have become weaker and fewer in mumber. If we could just get the electric vehicle in mass production/use I believe the problem would largely be solved

  27. manowx says:

    where’s Joe Joyce to comment on cut-off lows!

    1. matt says:

      maybe actually doing something?

  28. manowx says:

    This rapid loss of snow is not good news for summer time thunderstorms. It means there will be less temperature contrast to generate thunderstorms. The gases at work!

  29. JimmyJames says:

    Love all the global warming comments manowx even though I am a skeptic. The weather balances itself out. I think will have some good thunderstorm days this summer.

  30. Joshua says:

    I was totally wrong about this weekend’s temps and the fact there was some sunshine yesterday (I thought the clouds would prevail and that it wouldn’t get above 45). WBZ was right in their forecast.

    I do think the cooling this week (through mid week) will be a relative shock to the system, as we could be waking up to low 20s or even upper teens Tuesday and Wednesday morning. I still like my chances on there being more snow this winter. Not a lot more, but I think we’ll have a final bash or two to close out the season at around 90 inches.

  31. matt says:

    i am putting a 3 on my flood scale. which means poordrainage floding with minor and moderate flooding possible on minor and major rivers
    A 1 one my thunder storm scale
    rain starts around 4-5 pm and will continue through monday morning ending form west to east

  32. Hadi says:

    Great blog Joe!! Love the details and you really put out a great effort in writing it and I for one appreciate that.

  33. Paul52 says:

    There was 0.35 inch of rain today here in Pepperell thru 1900. The snow pack in my yard has gone from 20 inches on the first; to 17 inches yesterday; to 12 inches currently. My yard is now a soggy mess of water logged snow! The temperature that reached 53.0 earlier has now fallen back to 44.0 as of 1900. Today will likely be the first day here since back on 1 December with the temperature remaining above freezing for the entire calendar day. 76.0 inches of snow/ice has fallen here so far this season and that is not likely to be the end of it…

  34. joejoycewbz says:

    I do not have the energy for another blog…so I will post it here. In regards to what in store for the end of the week…The pattern has slowed down. The GFS is the most progressive…leaning towards the slower scenario. Energy is just starting to arrive on the west coast of the US…so plenty of time to evolve in the coming days. This short wave will move from west to east with a negative trough developing on the east coast by the end of the week. Similar to what occured this weekend…dry air will hold on as long as it can before the rain finally arrives. I do not think this is going to cut off…just a vigorous short wave which will move through by Saturday with a weaker short wave for Sunday…which will help to kick out the Friday-friday night rainfall and prevent any big flooding issues. Early thinking for now….focusing on the present!