Historically, this storm will rival many of the past storms that have impacted New England. Not only will the track be unique, but also the intensity will be one for the record books…with minimum pressures falling to levels comparable to some of our greatest hurricanes! Just Incredible.
High pressure is parked off the coast today providing abundant sunshine, sparkling blue skies and a very pleasant fall feel. Light winds from the SE will keep it slightly cooler at the coast this afternoon as most areas will climb to 60-65. A beautiful seasonal airmass for this time of year.
With a weak ridge of high pressure still in place, just enough sinking air remains in place so by the afternoon, this deck of clouds will begin to thin inland giving way to increasing sunshine inland where high temps could climb into the Lwr 70′s…especially in western New England who will see the most sun. Clouds will hold longer on the coast, but eventually the sun will emerge this afternoon. Light east winds will keep it cooler at the coast again in the Lwr-mid 60′s. Cape Cod and the Islands will have a mostly cloudy day with the risk of being clipped with some light showers from the midday through afternoon.
Periodic light showers will be shifting to SE MA and the Cape for the Afternoon where it will remain a bit damp. It is a dry day in Boston points, N & W. Clearing skies with drier air will try to push to the coast but it will not be easy. Sunshine in western New England should arrive near Worcester by 2 or 3 PM. It will take the entire day for the clearing line t reach the coast unfortunately. Winds are lighter today out of the NNE. With clouds and cool wind off the water…60′s and Lwr 70′s at the beaches, Lwr-mid 70′s inland where we will see some increasing afternoon sunshine.
Some may be stuck in the clouds for much of the day. On the Cape there is sunshine! A gorgeous morning. I do expect a gradual thinning and lifting to the clouds for partial sun to emerge by the late morning into the early afternoon. I think we are looking at a decent beach day for sky conditions, once the clouds burn off, but wind and waves may be another issue. Any emerging sun will help to fuel the development of afternoon storms.
Our computer models continue in a westward shift with the track of Tropical Storm this morning. Yesterday, models leaned towards taking the storm into the FL panhandle. Today, they seem to be favoring a track into Louisiana. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with the eventual outcome of landfall…somewhere between Pensacola FL and New Orleans Early Wed AM. How strong? Cat 2 likely. 100+ mph…but could be stronger depending upon the track and the depth of the warm water the storm tracks over. Cat 3 can not be ruled out. Storm Surge will be dependent upon the strength of the storm as seas/waves become bigger with deeper pressure falls and stronger winds. Where ever this storm hits it will come with significant storm surge flooding and damaging winds. All of this happening on the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. The path into New Orleans is the worst direction a hurricane can take for the city 6 feet under sea level. Levees could be tested again. All we can do is hope for a shift to the East…but then Mobile, Biloxi and Pensacola are the target. Answers to strength, track, surge, impact will come in the coming days. For now…all we can do is monitor.
A more humid feel to the air this weekend with dewpoints climbing back into the mid 60′s after such a nice comfortable week. This weekend will be dominated by a high sitting over the Canadian maritimes wrapping in a light onshore wind.
Sunday will remain dry with filtered sunshine with highs climbing into the 70′s near 80 with a cooling sea breeze. But, lows are still expected to drop into the 50′s tonight.
Morning showers are shifting to the coast this morning. Showers are extending from the North Shore into CT along a stalling front which has pushed just south of Boston and will become hung up across SE MA during the afternoon. Severe weather is not likely in this unseasonably cool airmass, with cloudy damp conditions & light variable winds. Morning showers will begin to wind down during the late morning into the midday with still plenty of cloud through the lunch hour.
We just have to make it through today…which will still be quite warm and tropical. The heaviest rain of the early morning has shifted off the coast with still a few lingering heavy downpours tracking from Worcester county into southern New Hampshire. Clouds continue to steam up the coast with the humid SW flow aloft…but the day will become progressively better by afternoon.