Latest Boston Barry Burbank
After a pleasantly mild morning with temperatures about a dozen degrees above the average for this date in the range of 54-59 during the inbound commute, I am still predicting a winter wonderland unfolding tonight. The cold front shifted offshore by midday and colder air slowly seeped in during the afternoon but a faster decline is expected this evening as the precipitation from the next wave of low pressure arrives.
This first day of December also marks the first day of meteorological winter and it started off with a bang this morning over many areas north and west of Boston with glazed roads produced by freezing mist and light freezing rain.
Winter is clearly the most challenging season of the year for us weather forecasters. Short-term prediction is tricky business because of the chaotic nature of the fluid atmosphere and that will probably always limit our ability to specifically predict the weather with any high degree of confidence beyond a theoretical threshold of 7-10 days.
With a projected very cold night tonight and the high temperatures close to 15 degrees below the average for the last day of the month tomorrow, the mean temperature for November will end up closer to 2 degrees below the average.
Albeit very cold with some near record low temperatures at dawn, it will turn out much less harsh tomorrow thanks to a weak wind of 5-15 mph. A ridge of high pressure will cross the region and the wind will shift from west to southwest and the core of the cold air will shift out of the region.
An arctic cold front is charging across the Great Lakes and is destined to pass across the Boston area in the early morning hours of tomorrow. This front will be triggering snow showers and snow squalls across portions of northern New England especially in various mountainous locations this evening and there is a risk that a few spotty flurries and perhaps a widely scattered snow squall will stray into MA in the early morning hours.
A strengthening gale center is crossing the Great Lakes this evening on its way into central Canada. The chunk of energy associated with this powerful system has been triggering a swath of severe weather in the Midwest and Ohio Valley states. Thankfully, the main energy supply will peel off well to the north and west of most of New England overnight.
There is essentially no change in this week’s forecast as described in my blog of 24 hours ago. There will be two cold December-like days followed by a nice recovery to above average temperatures the second half of the week. A gargantuan high pressure system will govern much of the nation through most of the week so it is an easy forecast with no storms to deal with and that is just fine with most of us. The only downside is the precipitation deficit over the past three months. Last week’s rain was slightly helpful but not that beneficial in many areas especially north and west of Boston.
The temperatures have been on a roller coaster over the past couple of weeks with delightful middle 60s to lower 70s at the end of last week ranging down to the chilling 40s more recently. The mean temperature for the month is over a degree above average at this time. More swings are likely in the week ahead with seasonable conditions the next couple of days followed by a December chill on Tuesday and Wednesday and much milder air returning the second half of next week.