BOSTON (CBS) – Start securing your Halloween decorations, if you haven’t already!
Our next storm will bring us stronger wind than the last one and possibly more localized urban flooding.
We’ll warm up a few degrees with increasing clouds, but then conditions will deteriorate Sunday afternoon.
The differences between our last storm and this one – this one will move faster.
Wind gusts will be a tad higher, which means more widespread damage and outages.
We may see a few strong or severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and night.
This storm system has multiple elements to it.
First, an approaching cold front moves in from the west with a powerful low-level jet stream. Some models are still going way high for our gusts so take what the models are saying with a grain of salt.
Once the wind makes it to the surface we’re thinking between 40 and 60 mph gusts from the southeast Sunday night as the front passes through.
Second, a coastal low tracks in from the south and gets picked up by the cold front and a negatively tilted upper level trough and upper level jet stream. This occurs overnight Sunday into Monday morning, so more rain and another round of damaging wind gusts still at 40-60 mph.
There are many ideas of what to call this storm complex, but one thing we can’t call it is a nor’easter.
Here’s the definition of a nor’easter from NOAA:
A strong low pressure system that affects the Mid Atlantic and New England States. It can form over land or over the coastal waters. These winter weather events are notorious for producing heavy snow, rain, and tremendous waves that crash onto Atlantic beaches, often causing beach erosion and structural damage. Wind gusts associated with these storms can exceed hurricane force in intensity. A nor’easter gets its name from the continuously strong northeasterly winds blowing in from the ocean ahead of the storm and over the coastal areas.
Here’s what we can expect Sunday into Monday:
Still tough to pinpoint the exact timing as we are a couple days away. But in the last few model runs, we look to stay dry in the morning.
Around 1 p.m. as the Patriots game gets underway, it will become breezy and there could be a spotty shower. Though the wind will increase throughout the day from the south and southeast, this will at least give us warmth and boost our temps into the upper 60’s.
The rain and wind will ramp up throughout Sunday afternoon and evening. By 11 p.m. we have a southeast wind and torrential rainfall spreading from south to north.
Overnight the heavy rain and damaging wind gusts continue. Monday morning will be a tough commute, perhaps with outages and urban flooding from overnight.
Then the system gradually moves out by Monday evening. Again, the timing of all this may change as we go through the weekend.
Our wind speed starts to increase Sunday morning into the afternoon. This will be a factor during the Patriots game.
The wind direction out of the southeast will be 25-to-35 mph.
As the wind cranks up Sunday, we will see peak wind speeds 40-60 mph from the southeast by 11 p.m.
Wind damage and scattered power outages will be likely.
Monday morning the wind stays strong from the southeast. Gusts will be between 40 and 60 mph.
As the area of low pressure moves into northern New England Monday afternoon, our wind direction changes but will stay strong.
Gusts by 4 p.m. will be between 40 and 50 mph from the west, southwest then from the west, northwest later in the evening.
This storm will move faster than the last one, but will still bring the potential for localized urban flooding and river flooding. The highest flood risk will be across western New England with maybe over 3 inches of rainfall.
This area for the flood threat remains a tad uncertain too. We will get a clearer picture in the next couple of model runs.
We get all of this mess out just in time for trick-or-treating on Tuesday!
The forecast couldn’t be more perfect and seasonable. High temperatures will be near 60 and it will be clear and cool.
Stay tuned to updates from the WBZ-TV weather team as we get more details on this Sunday-Monday storm.
Follow Pamela Gardner on Twitter.