Bruins Playoff Picture: B's Barely Control Their Own Destiny
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- If it looks like a collapse, feels like a collapse, and smells like a collapse, is it truly a collapse?
To be fair to the Boston Bruins, they haven't quite looked like a team on the verge of collapsing out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the third straight season in recent games. Interim head coach Bruce Cassidy has been satisfied with their effort, even if the end results haven't panned out. But after two straight losses to their direct competition in the standings, it's hard not to feel those same familiar nerves that permeated the team's late-season downfall in the past two years.
Still, the sky isn't quite falling yet for the Bruins. In the race to secure one of the final two Eastern Conference playoff seeds, the B's still control their own destiny. Barely.
Looking Ahead
The Bruins' final nine games still contain several crucial matchups against teams that are hot on their heels for either the third seed in the Atlantic Division or the second Wild Card spot. The Bruins remain in control of, at the very least, sneaking into the Wild Card - it wouldn't be ideal because they would have to play the top seed in the Metropolitan Division, but at this point, they'll take any playoff seed they can get.
Of course, this is assuming that the Bruins take care of their own business down the stretch. Mapping out the rest of the season, if the Bruins beat every team that is below them in the standings, they would go 5-4 in their final nine games and end up with 92 points. If their competition did the same, the Leafs would sneak past the Bruins for third place in the Atlantic with 93 points but the Bruins would easily hold off the Islanders (88 points) and Lightning (85 points) for the Wild Card.
A 5-4 record in the Bruins' last nine is contingent upon them going 3-0 in two games against the Lightning and one against the Islanders. A win over the Islanders would be the first of the season for the Bruins, who are 0-2 against that team. They also need to continue their undefeated streak against the Panthers and Stars; the B's are a combined 5-0 against those teams.
It's also important to note that these projections are all assuming that every game for every team ends in regulation, which isn't very likely. Things could get muddier if any of the Bruins' key games go into overtime.
Assuming the Bruins take care of business, if they want third place in the Atlantic they will need the Maple Leafs to slip up against a team below them in the standings. That would mean that at least one out of the Devils, Panthers, Red Wings, Sabres, or Lightning upend the Leafs in the coming weeks. Toronto is a combined 11-3-1 against those teams, so a slip-up is possible but not terribly likely.
If nothing fluky happens down the stretch, the most likely result is the Bruins end up in the second Wild Card seed. A surprise win over the Blackhawks, Senators, or Capitals in the final week of the season would go a long way toward vaulting them into third place into the Atlantic. But the main focus should be on the next two games against the Lightning and Islanders; regulation wins in each of those games would significantly boost the Bruins' chances of holding them off.
The Big Picture
The good news for the Bruins, despite gaining zero points in their last two games, is that they haven't looked too ugly in the process. They need to finish their chances better and avoid the defensive lapses that led to backbreaking goals in the last two games, but they've still played better than the insufferably lackluster efforts of the past two seasons.
As long as the Bruins beat the teams they're supposed to beat and the Islanders and Lightning don't get too hot down the stretch, the B's will be in the playoffs. But, like the last two seasons, they could be one or two slip-ups away from a third straight disappointment.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Have a news tip or comment for Matt? Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
