Beyond The Forecast: Snow Threat Drops, But Keeping An Eye On The Storm

Update: A major shift in track means most of New England will be spared snow accumulation. Find all the details here

BOSTON (CBS) — The threat of any significant new snowfall has sharply decreased overnight, but we’re still keeping an eye on this one.

2017 isobar storm2 Beyond The Forecast: Snow Threat Drops, But Keeping An Eye On The Storm

ANALYSIS:

New forecast guidance is projecting the storm will travel father east out to sea off Delmarva before tracking more northeastward. Consequently, the northwestern flank of its shield of steadiest precipitation will transit primarily only over southeastern Massachusetts.

2017 isobar storm1 Beyond The Forecast: Snow Threat Drops, But Keeping An Eye On The StormThe situation bears watching for any possible subsequent wobbles as the turning commences tomorrow. It could shift enough to eliminate much of the snow from the area or, on the flip side, it could expand westward to yield some accumulation farther west and north of Boston. The second scenario seems less likely at this point. The storm will become much better organized, but it will not energize to the magnitude of its predecessor with a position much farther away from New England.

SNOWFALL:

As a result, potential snowfall totals have been slashed somewhat to reflect the changes in position and dynamics of this evolving storm that really hasn’t been born yet.

2017 snowfall poly forecast Beyond The Forecast: Snow Threat Drops, But Keeping An Eye On The Storm

The WBZ Storm Watch/Weather Alert remains in effect for mainly southeastern Massachusetts, where some accumulating wet snow is still possible. If the snowfall tempo remains light, much of the snow could just melt upon contact with major asphalt roadways down there. Right now, only a few spells of somewhat heavier snow are possible.

WIND & TIDES:

The most notable feature tomorrow into early Monday will be the wind. As the storm deepens out over the ocean, the pressure gradient will tighten and crank the wind gusts up to 40-50 mph over southeastern Massachusetts with some stronger gusts possible over Cape Cod and the Islands.

2017 wind forecast polygon Beyond The Forecast: Snow Threat Drops, But Keeping An Eye On The Storm

The National Weather Service currently has a High Wind Watch and a Winter Storm Watch posted for the Cape & Islands. The direction of the wind will be from the northeast tomorrow then more northerly tomorrow night and north-northwesterly Monday morning. The wind on Monday will be strongest early in the day with a noticeable decrease during the day. Thanks to astronomical conditions and the scheduled lower height of the high tides this time of the month, coastal flooding will not be an issue. The height decreases from 9.2 ft at 4:30 a.m. tomorrow morning to 8.4 ft at 5 p.m. tomorrow afternoon, followed by 9.0 ft. at 5:20 a.m. Monday morning. While flooding will not occur, seas will become rough again.

EVENTS:

While snow showers cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon in Boston, it appears that the threat of any snow during the 1 p.m. St. Patrick’s Parade in South Boston is extremely low.

2017 weekend event 5 Beyond The Forecast: Snow Threat Drops, But Keeping An Eye On The Storm

It will be blustery–so bundle up, as the gusty wind chills the air and makes it feel like the 20s!

After that, get ready to celebrate the vernal equinox Monday morning.

2017 spring Beyond The Forecast: Snow Threat Drops, But Keeping An Eye On The Storm

There could be some residual sprinkles or snow showers along the coast as spring starts at 6:29 in the morning, but clearing will press in from the west.

RECOMMENDATION:

I suggest that you follow updated forecasts later today. Pamela Gardner will post information here on cbsboston.com and on social media. Additionally, she will deliver plenty of information on WBZ News on myTV38 at 8 p.m. The 6 p.m. news is pre-empted this evening due to “March Madness,” and the 11 p.m. WBZ News may be late due to any prolonged basketball games. I will be back on duty early tomorrow morning on social media and on WBZ News at 5 a.m.

–Barry

More from Barry Burbank
Comments

One Comment

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

More From CBS Boston

Call For Action
Download Our App

Watch & Listen LIVE