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Potential For Plowable Snow In Southern New England Monday

BOSTON (CBS) - Are you ready?? We are tracking what could be our first significant snowstorm of this young season. And better yet, the timing could affect the start of the workweek next week, with the potential for multiple messy commutes and some school closures.

Perhaps the last few years may have lulled you into a false sense of snow security with regards to December. December 2014 and December 2015 had a COMBINED 1.2" of total snow and temperatures have been off the charts. Last December was record warm, including 60+ on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Many were beginning to wonder if our seasons were shifting…perhaps December had become a more manageable month with regards to snow and cold, sort of an extra extended fall…think again.

WBZ weather
(WBZ-TV graphic)

It sure started off mild…November was very toasty here in New England. But, while we were basking in the late Autumn sunlight, on the other side of the globe it was a much different story. Parts of Europe, Asia and Siberia had an insanely cold November. Temperature anomalies were off the charts, while much of the Arctic was unseasonably mild, the core of the cold had shifted south. Now it appears to be our turn. For the last week or so, bitterly cold air has been gathering in parts of Alaska in Northwestern Canada, seemingly plotting it journey southward into the United States. Now it is on the move. The Upper Midwest is currently an icebox. Single digit high temperatures with wind chills well below 0…You can't find a temperature above freezing west of New England until you reach the Pacific Ocean. And where there's that much cold, usually there's snow to go with it.

Snow map
December 12 storm (WBZ-TV graphic)

First let me say that the snowstorm for early next week is by no means a lock. After all, it is only Thursday and currently the piece of energy associated with our potential storm is sitting hundreds of miles north of Hawaii. Typically until the storm comes onto land in the Western U.S. and it more widely sampled, models struggle to find a common solution…so in other words, be sure to check back in a few days.

Having said that, here is what we know now…

Snow
December 12 storm (WBZ-TV graphic)

TIMEFRAME: Some light snow is likely ahead of the storm on Sunday. Call it mood snow for your Christmas shopping. Nothing too heavy, likely just enough to produce a fresh coating here and there around the area. The time to watch for more significant snowfall would be late Sunday night and Monday. There is the potential for both commutes to be affected on Monday and at this point we can't rule out a messy Tuesday AM commute either.

WET OR WHITE: Again, there is much work to be done here as well. Most solutions right now would favor more snow than rain for a good deal of our area. And as usual, the best chance of rain would be along the immediate Coastline and even more so over the Cape and Islands.

HOW MUCH: We are talking only POTENTIAL here…there is potential for a plowable snow over a wide area in southern New England. This one won't go in the record books, far from it, but several inches of light to moderate could accumulate over several hours.

COASTAL/WIND CONCERNS: At this point this does NOT appear to be a classic nor'easter-type storm. The main impact would be from snow accumulation and NOT from wind damage or coastal flooding. Should be a fairly weak storm system, passing quickly through the west to east flow across the U.S., without much time to get too wound up.

'Tis the season!

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