WBZ-UMass Poll: Clinton Leads Trump By 4 Points In NH

BOSTON (CBS) – Since this seemingly-endless campaign began, Donald Trump has made at least 34 trips to New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton has made at least 24 trips. But after all that work, according to the new WBZ-TV, WBZ NewsRadio, UMass Amherst poll, she leads him by just four points, within our poll’s margin of error.

(WBZ-TV)

(WBZ-TV)

Why is it so close?

“They’ve spent a lot of time in that state and they haven’t really changed the perceptions of voters,” says WBZ-UMass Amherst pollster Ray La Raja

Sure enough, after all that campaigning, those perceptions are not very flattering. We asked voters what word they would use to describe the candidates, and the results for Clinton are awful, dominated by terms like “liar” and “corrupt.” Positive adjectives like “qualified” and “experienced” get some play, but the Trump campaign narrative of her as “criminal” has found fertile ground.

(WBZ-TV)

(WBZ-TV)

But if Clinton’s word cloud is ominous, Trump’s is downright apocalyptic. When voters most commonly say you’re a “dangerous, crazy, disgusting, insane idiot and bully,” that doesn’t leave much room for positive like “strong” and “leader” to break through.

(WBZ-TV)

(WBZ-TV)

“That is a basket of negatives, the Trump word cloud, it’s unbelievable,” says La Raja. “It’s all over the place. Hillary’s really has a focus on the word liar, so the opposition has done a good job framing her that way. But you can’t be happy as a Trump supporter to see how many different types of negatives come out clearly.”

So where does Clinton’s narrow edge come from?

Check: Crosstabs For Presidential Vote (.pdf)

Check: Toplines For Presidential Election

Our poll finds she has support from 84 percent of Democrats, a standard partisan result for presidential candidates. But Trump has only 73 percent of the Republicans in his corner, a problem that’s plagued him all along.

(WBZ-TV)

(WBZ-TV)

And while Clinton’s eight-point edge among women is a key to her small lead, that’s smaller than the usual gender gap Democrats enjoy, a troubling sign for the first female major-party nominee.

(WBZ-TV)

(WBZ-TV)

Our poll suggests Clinton is in position to close the deal in New Hampshire, but has yet to do so. Why?

This is, after all, the same state that chose Bernie Sanders over her nine months ago. And while political experts often speak of an “enthusiasm gap” between candidates, in New Hampshire, there seems to be one between the candidates and the voters.

More from Jon Keller
Comments

One Comment

  1. mstarvin says:

    I fear that NH is becoming a clone of Massachusetts. I see the Police commissioner from Portsmouth pumping gun control in an anti-Ayotte ad.

  2. mikey says:

    Here’s my word cloud: “They both suck – big time.”

  3. Lance says:

    I think the race in New Hampshire is much closer than that Jon.Cbs Boston is turning into the new CNN.

  4. Lance says:

    The LIberal media is very afraid of what is going to happen on election day,i dont trust any of these polls.The fact is people dont feel safe anymore,they make less money than in years past and they dont want to make it know that they are voting for Trump1

    1. Lance gayest name ever says:

      republicans are afraid of everything…..

      Get your gun and bible and cower in fear, news said another gay man named “Lance” is in the area to give you gay diseases or something.

      1. mstarvin says:

        Oh look it is the little basement troll posting from Mommy’s computer again. Typical liberal full of hate. I am surprised that you took Soro’s d i c k out of your mouth long enough to post…

      2. Unemployed Marvin says:

        Nah, I am posting your your mom’s computer. She says you disappoint her and also she wants it in the butt again.

    2. Chris Christie's Belt says:

      and yet they were accurate last election and during the primaries….

      If anything they overestimate Trump support as pollsters like Gravis mostly call land lines, and few young people have those.

  5. hammerhead says:

    hogwash, trump will win nh

    1. Donald J Trump says:

      “hogwash” is when your mom takes a shower

      1. mstarvin says:

        Good one!

      2. hammerhead says:

        typical liberal hater

      3. Donald J Trump says:

        “Hater”? Only coloreds say hater, you can not rent a Trump apartment, I will put a “C” on your application you uneducated city dwelling thug.

      4. mstarvin says:

        No a hogwash is what you lefties give George Soro’s every time you open your mouths.

  6. arnoii says:

    Is that within the “margin of error?”

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