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Keller @ Large: Have Voters Made Up Their Minds Already?

BOSTON (CBS) – Today is September first. That means there are exactly 68 days to go until Election Day. And I have a question for you – will anything that happens over these final ten weeks really make a difference to you?

For instance, in February of 2011 – 22 months before the presidential election – trial match ups between President Obama and Mitt Romney showed Obama with a four-point lead. In early September of 2012, the polls on average had Obama with that same four-point lead. On Election Day, Obama beat Romney by – you guessed it – four points.

Of course there were fluctuations over time. The polling down the stretch suggested a dead-heat race. But you could argue that almost two years before the election, enough voters had fundamentally decided they liked Obama well enough to give him a second term, and that short of some cataclysmic event, nothing was going to change that.

This time around, there is no incumbent running, although Hillary Clinton has cast herself as an extension of the Obama era. And Donald Trump certainly represents a dramatic change from what Romney was offering.

But even as we obsess over each day’s news – her ethical issues, his tightrope walk on immigration, what this poll or that poll means – could it be that in the end, little to none of it will really matter?

I would offer one caveat. A disastrous meltdown by either candidate in the first debate could be impactful, although you’ll recall that Obama faltered badly in his first debate with Romney without lasting damage.

But short of that, voters already have ample information with which to make a decision. Too bad we have to wait another 68 days to see what it is.

More from Jon Keller
Comments

One Comment

  1. Dan Chode says:

    Trumpler bragged he could shoot somebody and not lose voters, he loves the uneducated.

    1. Sy Clops says:

      He’d better hope he doesn’t shoot the wrong person… or he could lose at least one voter

  2. Elcillej says:

    If the national debates include the third party candidates, it could sway the undecided and the “not for …” people to vote third party.

  3. bees_knees_6 says:

    Ok so something I am saying is causing my comment to be held for moderation.

    Third party could definitely sway independents. Agree with that.

    I think it de pends on how strongly people feel about Trump not being in office. I believe a third party would be a vote for that party and also for Trump.

    1. bees_knees_6 says:

      Ah ha – must be because I said it also will depend on how much R u s s i a wants to play with our voting system. The R word must be forbidden.

      1. The Owl says:

        You look good in a tin-foil beanie, Bees.

        Joined the conspiracy theorists, eh?

      2. mstarvin says:

        I have been sent to the moderation blackhole for the words C o m m u n i s m and S o c i a l i s m

      3. mstarvin says:

        You do realize that historically almost 100% of voter fraud has been perpetrated by Democrats.

      4. bees_knees_6 says:

        mstarvin…go figure. Grand new system this is. Makes you wonder how each improvement makes it worse. Says a ton for CBS. And Considering voter fraud is nearly nonexistent is that 10% of 0.00011111? Although redistricting is a laugh a minute with clear intentions….along with having to have proof which of course eliminates the poor and elderly in large numbers.

        Owl, please step down to a level where there is sufficient oxygen for your brain to function. If you think that Trump is not Putin’s choice, I have a bridge and a huge plot of land for sale.

  4. Inmates For Hillary says:

    Because, she should be one of us!

  5. mikey says:

    My, oh, my – where did the summer go? Seems like only yesterday we said “Hello” to Memorial Day weekend. Then all of a sudden the 4th of July blew by, now Labor weekend is here already. Hmm.

    Well then from my senior citizen perspective a very wise person nailed it when they said: “Life’s like a roll of toilet paper – the closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.

    But apparently that wisdom doesn’t apply to the presidential election – bummer.

    1. bees_knees_6 says:

      And then some, Mikey. But we are here and I think that makes us among the lucky ones. Whoosh is the word for the day.

      If the buildup to November is bad, just think about the fun we will have after January.

      And where is gramps? I’m still moderately ticked at him but he has been in a timeout long enough perhaps.

  6. mstarvin says:

    1/3 votes democrat, 1/3 vote Republican and 1/3 third is the swing voters…..same statistics every election. Anyone but Hillary suits me…

    1. anna says:

      I agree. As a retired school teacher I’m tired of the Dems( was one at one time) giving away so much and NOT at their expense, but the poor promised middle class. Let’s give him a chance. It can’t get much worse.

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