No, Seriously, Rick Porcello Is In The Hunt For The Cy Young Award
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Rick Porcello continues to pitch at a high level and assert himself as the leader of the Red Sox pitching staff, firing eight strong innings against the Yankees Tuesday to tie for the major-league lead with 15 wins.
He's also pitching himself deeper into the conversation for the American League Cy Young Award, which is in the midst of the most wide-open race for the honor in years.
Porcello is 11-0 at Fenway Park, a success that he attributed to "making good pitches at the right time" - in other words, the mark of a winner. And as history has shown, if Porcello can finish the season with the most wins in the AL, he will get serious consideration for the Cy, regardless of his other stats.
But about those other stats ...
Porcello's 3.40 ERA (12th in the league) and 125 strikeouts (15th) don't scream "Cy Young," but neither do they for any other pitcher in the AL so far this season. The big difference between 2016 and other recent AL Cy Young winners is that no pitcher has a combination of the "pitching triple crown" of wins, ERA, and strikeouts that would put them firmly above the rest.
There's no one in this year's AL Cy Young race like Dallas Kuechel, who finished in the top-five in all three categories to win the award in 2015. Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber, the 2013 and 2014 winners, each finished in the top-three. Even 2012 winner David Price, who was sixth in the league in punchouts that season, led the AL in wins and ERA.
This year, the biggest strikeout pitchers have also been the most inconsistent. Of the 14 pitchers in the AL with more strikeouts than Porcello entering Wednesday, only six have a better ERA and none have more wins. However, there are three established high-end starters among them - Kluber, Chris Sale, and Cole Hamels - who are also very much in the race and will earn their shares of votes as long as they keep pitching well and notching wins.
There are those out there who reject wins as a stat for pitchers, but I'm firmly on the other side of that coin. If a guy gives up five runs in the first inning but settles down from there while the team comes back to win, he earned that victory. Many of Porcello's wins this season feel earned. Wins can be fluky and often depend on factors outside a starter's control, but they can also be a testament to a pitcher's willingness to pitch deep into games and fight for the W in closer battles.
As for Porcello's ERA ... he may need to get it down to around 3.00 or lower to garner serious consideration for the Cy Young, even with a league-leading win total. It benefits Porcello, however, that there's no runaway leader in that category. There's no one with a dominant-enough ERA to overcome a low win total to win the Cy, like Felix Hernandez did in 2010 with his 2.27 ERA, 232 strikeouts, and 13-12 record. Jose Quintana, Marco Estrada, and Danny Duffy, 3-5 in the league in ERA, all have under 10 wins and similar strikeout totals to Porcello.
Who else is in the hunt?
There's also the curious case of J.A. Happ, the only other pitcher in the majors with 15 wins who sports a lower ERA (3.09) and trails Porcello in strikeouts by just eight. Of the less established, arguably overachieving starters in the Cy Young hunt, these two are the ones with the best chance to win and the two names to most naturally compare in this race.
There's another name to throw into the hat, and it's a familiar one: Steven Wright still has a better ERA (3.01, sixth in the AL) than Porcello and a 13-5 record. Wright, at the very least, could steal some votes from his teammate, if not cause a split.
So who wins the thing?
With so many pitchers still in the hunt for the Cy Young - at least eight, by my count - the race will come down to who pitches the best in the final month-and-a-half of the season, which isn't always the case with this particular award. If you want to force me to make a prediction ... Fine, I say Cole Hamels pitches well down the stretch of the Rangers' super-easy schedule, ends up with 17-19 wins, and combined with a top-10 strikeout total and possibly league-leading ERA does enough to earn his first career Cy.
The good news for Porcello is, he's likely going to finish among the league leaders in the all-important wins category, which could have more significance this season than any in recent memory. Porcello may not end up with the trophy, but he's certainly pitching well enough to remain in the hunt for it and, regardless of whether he wins it, that can only be a good thing for the Red Sox.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Have a news tip or comment for Matt? Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
