Massarotti: These Red Sox Are Going To Be Tested
BOSTON (CBS) - Slightly more than a quarter of the way through the 2016 season, the Red Sox are 25-15, on pace for 99 victories, possessors of the best offense in baseball. By traditional or modern methods, they rank in the top half of American League teams in defense. They run the bases well. And they have a gifted young nucleus that suggests something far more "sustainable," the word former general manager Ben Cherington used before the 2015 season that cost him his job.
In the shorter term over the next 40 games to the next 121, the success of the 2016 Red Sox will depend on what they can indeed sustain … and what they cannot.
A year ago at this time, after all, the Toronto Blue East were 18-24, buried in last place in the AL East. The Texas Rangers were 17-23. Fewer than five months later, the Jays and Rangers were squaring off in an AL Division Series that ignited tensions still ablaze today, their rosters altered by an annual trading deadline featuring the relocation of, among others, David Price (to Toronto) and Cole Hamels (to Texas). When Johnny Cueto also moved – to Kansas City – the balance of power in the American League was altered.
Texas won the AL West. Toronto and Kansas City ended up in the AL Championship Series. The Royals won it all.
Where are the 2016 Red Sox headed? That remains unclear. But as the Red Sox move back among the living for what should be years to come, their current season depends on what is sustainable and what is not.
1. The offense
Are they good? Yes. Are they this good? Probably not. For starters, the Red Sox ripped apart the staffs of the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves and Oakland A's, who rank a respective 20th, 24th, 25th and 26th in the majors in ERA. Yes, the Red Sox had something to do with that ranking, but the simple truth is that the Red Sox have received otherworldly production at designated hitter, third base and center field, where they have a retiring 40-year-old and a pair of 20-somethings who have never played a full major league season.
At the moment, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley and Travis Shaw rank second, fifth and ninth in the AL in OPS. If that remains the case, the Red Sox will almost certainly lead baseball in scoring and threaten 1,000 runs, all three are left-handed and because the Red Sox will face right-handed pitching roughly 70 percent of the time.
The likelihood, of course, is that Shaw and Bradley, at least, will fade some. And while Mookie Betts will almost certainly get better, remember that Xander Bogaerts (15th in OPS), Hanley Ramirez (24th) and Dustin Pedroia (28th) are all now among the top 30 in OPS, which means the Red Sox really don't have too many places to travel but down.
The good news? Barring injury, the base running and defense on this team should continue to be good. That will help.
2. The pitching
The good news is that it is sustainable. The bad news is that it is average at best.
Currently, the Sox rank ninth overall in team ERA. The bullpen ranks fifth while the starters rank ninth. David Price certainly hasn't come anywhere near to fulfilling his promise just yet, but Rick Porcello and Steven Wright have far exceeded expectations. When you weigh it all out, the Sox may lose as much as they gain going forward, and a finish somewhere in the middle of the pack of the AL – essentially where they are now – is a realistic goal.
Don't misunderstand. Given the club's offense, defense and athleticism, the Sox can win with this formula. Or rather, they can win enough.
Here are the problems:
First, the Sox were counting on important innings this season from 23-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez and 26-year-old Carson Smith, who thus far have combined for 2.2 innings – a grand total of eight outs. Worse, neither appears positioned to make a significant contribution anytime soon, and it's fair to wonder whether either will.
Further, this year's pitching market at the trading deadline seems downright anorexic compared to a year ago, when Price, Hamels and Cueto all moved. Things can obviously change, but this year's market is dog food – comparatively speaking – with interested teams left to rely on a group that could include, among others, Rich Hill, Andrew Cashner, James Shields or Julio Teheran, who range from older and/or overpaid to downright uninspiring. Quite simply, the Red Sox need something better.
One final thought: Even if someone like Hill is intriguing at the moment, the cost for him could be high because there won't be many other decent options. Given the overall state of pitching at Red Sox' major-league and upper minor-league levels, are the Sox really in a spot to overpay for a rental?
3. The schedule
Slice it up however you want. Against the Yankees, A's, Astros and Braves, the Red Sox are 15-5 with a run differential of +56. Against everyone else, they're 10-11 with a run differential of +1. Against teams with losing records, the Red Sox are 19-8. Against teams .500 or better, they're 6-8. The Red Sox wouldn't be the first to beat up on bad teams. And as we all know, in the last two years, they were one of those bad teams.
The real problem is what August and September hold in store for them, a particular concern given the thinness of their pitching staff and the youth of their lineup. While the Red Sox have played fairly well on the road thus far (11-8, third-best in the American League), they will play 40 of their final 62 games away from Fenway Park, where they most recently looked downright dominant. They have only 10 home games in September. The baseball season has a way of chewing through pitching and youth – particularly after repeated flights – and the Red Sox are going to be doing a lot of relocating in the final weeks.
Again, some good news: because of their athleticism, these Red Sox play a brand of baseball that should travel far better than the game played by many Sox teams over the years. They run well. They play good defense. But getting yourself out of last place is one thing. Getting yourself into the upper class requires something altogether different.
And over the final three-quarters of the 2016, the Red Sox are going to be tested like they have not been in a very long time.
