Jackie Bradley Jr.'s Hot Streak Won't Last - But It Will Happen Again
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. is simply hitting the baseball on another level from just about everyone in the game. During his 17-game hit streak, he is batting .406 (there's a familiar number) with six home runs, 12 doubles, and 24 RBI. Combine Bradley's recent batting dominance with his elite defense in center field and you're talking about one of the best all-around players in baseball.
Bradley looks like one of the American League's elite hitters right now - he ranks 10th in the AL in Fangraphs' fancy "Offensive runs above average" stat with a 9.5 rating, just behind the likes of Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and teammate David Ortiz. In other words, Bradley is putting up MVP-caliber numbers at the plate.
However, Bradley's current streak is far from sustainable: he's been exceptionally lucky at the plate with a .476 batting average on balls in play, well above his .293 BABIP (right around the league average) in his first 16 games. His ISO, which measures raw power, is an unfathomable .453, considering Ortiz's .357 ISO leads the league entering Thursday.
Bradley can't do what he's doing right now for close to a full season, but that doesn't mean a stretch like this is unprecedented or that it won't happen again. Bradley has gone on tears like this before, both good and bad, and his extreme streakiness may simply become a regular component of his game.
For comparison's sake, let's look at a stretch from 2015 with the same amount of games (17) as Bradley's current run. From August 9-29, Bradley went on a remarkably similar tear as 2016, batting .386 with five home runs and 21 RBI. In 2013, while playing in Triple-A Pawtucket for another 17-game stretch, Bradley batted .297 with four home runs, eight doubles, and 10 RBI.
Cynics will take some obvious avenues as to what Bradley is doing differently to hit so well, but the more reasonable, measured Sean McAdam told Toucher & Rich Thursday that Bradley is being "more aggressive early in the count." His season stats bear that out: on the first three pitches of at-bats, Bradley is batting .474 (27-for-57) with four home runs, six doubles, four triples, and 19 RBI. He is 6-for-14 with six RBI on the first pitch.
Not only is Bradley taking more advantage of hittable pitches early in the count, he's hitting them with more authority. His percentage of hard-hit balls, based on Fangraphs' valuable but imperfect Hard % stat, is at 54 percent - Fangraphs denotes 40 percent as an "excellent" rate.
"I'm just trying to stick with my approach, try to keep everything simple, and put good swings on good pitches," Bradley told reporters after the Red Sox's 13-3 win Wednesday night. He went 8-for-14 with three homers and 13 RBI in the Red Sox's three-game sweep of the Oakland A's.
Interestingly enough, Bradley is swinging at only slightly more pitches overall during his 17-game hit streak compared to the previous 16 games to start the 2016 season, but his overall contact rate is up from about 70 percent to 85 percent. He is simply locked in right now.
As incredible as Bradley's 2016 tear is, he's been equally prone to extreme slumps. Prior to his 2015 hot streak, Bradley batted an abysmal .121 with just one extra-base hit in 24 games split between three different stints. He slashed just .222/.271/.315 in 16 games to start 2016. Right now, he's basically Trout.
Bradley won't hit like an MVP candidate for a full season, but he's also far better than the guy who batted .196 in his first 164 career major league games. Now that Bradley has shown two extended stretches of elite production at the plate in less than a calendar year, the streaks - both hot and cold - are becoming a trend. At the plate, Bradley's extreme streakiness is becoming the norm. He may yet disappear for a stretch once again this season, but this won't be the last time he looks unstoppable at the plate.
Hopefully, for the Red Sox's sake, Bradley saves his next tear for October.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Have a news tip or comment for Matt? Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
