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Starting Travis Shaw Is Still A Major Risk For The Red Sox

By Johnny Carey, CBS Boston

BOSTON (CBS) --- Travis Shaw is having a truly incredible spring training.

After resembling the next-coming of Shea Hillenbrand over 65 games last season, Shaw's looking like the next-coming of Ted Williams in Florida.

The second-year man has been the best bat in Fort Myers, hitting .450 with 9 RBI in 14 games, thus catapulting himself from backup to someone seen as an integral part of the everyday lineup.

A sports market that tends to gravitate toward the negative has completely taken to Shaw, thanks to his recent success, as well as his humble, team-first attitude.

His popularity, however, doesn't just stem from his own performance. Shaw's newfound celebrity has certainly been helped along by the overweight, under-performing player making $95 million against whom he is competing.

Put lightly, fans are not happy with Pablo Sandoval. And why should they be?

To help understand each player's perception, let's compare what Shaw and Sandoval told us they wanted to prove this spring.

"I'm trying to make it hard on the decision-makers not to start me," Shaw said. "There are still three weeks of spring training to go. Nothing is set in stone."

Sandoval, on the other hand, infamously told reporters, "No, I don't got nothing to prove."

How could you not root for the homegrown talent who says all the right things over someone who says ... that?

The honeymoon period with Shaw makes all the sense in the world right now, given the testy nature of Pablo Sandoval and the uncertainty of Hanley Ramirez at first base. Still, John Farrell is in a difficult position with Shaw.

Naming Shaw an everyday starter to begin the season presents major risk for the 2016 Red Sox.

If it didn't, Farrell would have done it by now. It's hard to imagine there will be a scenario (barring significant injury to Sandoval) more conducive to naming Shaw the everyday third baseman than right now, if spring training stats and fan perception are what go into the decision.

The worst=case scenario for Farrell is to name Shaw the starter over Sandoval, and for Shaw to struggle out of the gate.

If last season tells us anything, this is a real risk.

The Red Sox start the 2016 season with eight consecutive road games. While Shaw hit .319 with a .953 OPS in 33 games at Fenway in 2015, he hit .215 with a .660 OPS in 32 games on the road.

Plus, it's important to note again, that Shaw has only played 65 games in the major leagues. Plenty of prospects have played well over short periods of time, only to struggle more the second time around. (Hi, Will Middlebrooks).

Travis Shaw didn't even exactly dominate the minor leagues before being called up last season.

His career numbers in Triple-A: .256 batting average, 15 HR, 71 RBI in 158 games.

This doesn't mean that Shaw can't be a very good player, but instead shows there's a good chance he'll need to grow more before becoming ready to be an everyday player at the major league level.

Despite being the fans' least favorite Red Sox at the moment, Sandoval is still important to the team, which also doesn't help Shaw.

It would be hard to justify sitting a man who makes $17 million and has won three titles for a player who's had great exhibition games, especially considering the team will have completely lost a man who doesn't seem to respond well to negativity. After being built up by management as someone working hard,  slimming down to 17 percent body fat (yeah right), and getting back on track for this season, it's hard to imagine the former World Series MVP would echo the team-first mentality of Shaw if he were sent to the bench.

If Sandoval is in part benched because of his declining glove, what purpose would he even serve on the bench? We all know that he wouldn't be any help as a pinch runner. He'd just be a distraction.

The Red Sox won't cut him, and it's highly unlikely anyone would trade for him, so what do you do with Sandoval?

Well, you either have to play him or get rid of him, and at this point, completely cutting ties with Sandoval for an unproven player is a massive risk.

A proposal to send Shaw to left field while taking Sandoval and Ramirez's off-days has become trendy over the past few days. The plan is meant to allow Shaw everyday at-bats via a rotating lineup, a la 2015 Brock Holt.

What the strategy overlooks, though, is the man used in the comparison -- Brock Holt.

Holt, the lone all-star for Boston last season, is nowhere to be heard or seen in this scenario. If Sandoval plays most days at third, and Shaw takes the innings Sandoval sits, Holt will not play at third base at all. If Shaw takes first when Ramirez needs a day off, Holt will also miss out on those innings.

In the outfield, the Red Sox already have five names to juggle around (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Rusney Castillo, Chris Young, Holt). Adding Shaw to the mix in the outfield would conceivably take away innings from everyone but Betts. Holt would be reduced to a solely backup role behind Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts, which as we've seen over the past couple of years, tends not to last long as a solution because Holt is a darn good baseball player.

The Red Sox don't need another Brock Holt when they already have ... Brock Holt.

Shaw in the outfield presents nothing but risk, not only because he hasn't spent significant time playing the position (forcing someone to do that didn't exactly work out well last season), but because the outfield already has so many options.

With Young, you know what you're getting; a solid bat exclusively against lefties. Farrell has already stated that Young will start against lefties -- it's why the team signed him.

With Bradley, you at least know you're getting great fielding. Although if spring training stats are what we should judge Shaw's bat by, shouldn't we also judge Bradley's by them? He's batting .355 with a .928 OPS this spring, so how could you take that out of the lineup?

With Holt, you know you're getting: what you'd be hoping to get out of Shaw in a similar role.

You don't know what you're getting out of Castillo, but after paying the man $72.5 million, you probably should see what you're getting out of that investment before you move on.

Travis Shaw should and will get playing time this season -- he just shouldn't start right away.

If he believes what he says about being willing to do whatever it takes to win, what's the harm in making sure spring training stats weren't just an aberration before cutting ties with a $95 million investment or burying the team's only all-star from last season?

One of Ramirez, Sandoval, or Castillo is likely to struggle early on, and when one does, Shaw will still be there.

Spring training stats are nice, but let's pump the brakes a little bit.

Johnny Carey is a senior at Boston College. You can find him on Twitter @JohnnyHeights.

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