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Are The Red Sox Banking Too Heavily On Bradley, Castillo?

By Johnny Carey, CBS Boston

BOSTON (CBS) -- Only one week remains till pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers, Red Sox fans. David Price has arrived early, determined to justify his seven-year, $217 million contract. 2015 was ugly, but 2015 was last year. We're on to 2016.

There's a numbness left by a last-place season that leaves a team and its fan base asking, "Did that really happen?" Well, yes -- yes it did. It also happened the year before. And two years before that. (It's becoming very numbing.)

Nevertheless, there's a sense amongst some Red Sox fans that a quick turnaround is imminent-- after all, 2013 wasn't so long ago.

We fell into the trap last offseason, as Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were supposed to take Boston back to the World Series. Instead, they took the team back into the tank.

Here we are again. The team certainly made strides this offseason by adding big time arms in Price, Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith. It's not ridiculous by any means to predict that the Red Sox could go from worst to first again in an AL East without a clear favorite. But is transitioning from paper to the field ever really that straightforward?

Questions still remain about the rotation after Price, which are more than reasonable. To me, however, the biggest wild card surrounding the 2016 Boston Red Sox- one that could either be their ultimate downfall or the catalyst for their success, lies in the outfield.

Let's start with the good. The really good --Mookie Betts.

Throughout the winter, Betts has been labeled as a trendy choice to break out. That's a ridiculous statement. Mookie Betts has already broken out.

In 2015, Betts was 20th in WAR (16th for position players). He finished 19th in MVP voting only one season after starting as a second baseman in Double-A. The moral of the story is that Mookie Betts is already a star. If by "break out," we're talking "come in the top five of MVP voting," then I'd have to agree.

What surrounds Betts in the outfield, though, is far less clear and presents major question marks for the 2016 Red Sox. Last year's "Turn a career shortstop into a left fielder" Hanley Ramirez experiment was a horrible failure. How he'll fare at first base is a topic for another article, but for now we can say that moving Ramirez allows the team to focus on the massive defensive upgrade of Jackie Bradley Jr. Replacing the single worst defensive outfielder in baseball with arguably the best can't be understated.

Still, everyone knows that the problem with Bradley has never been defense. He's so much fun to watch patrol the outfield at Fenway (especially in center), that it's impossible not to get caught up in his potential. The issue is that no one knows what the Red Sox will get from Bradley at the plate. Outside of an incredible August where Bradley hit .354/.429/.734/1.163, he has never shown the ability to hit at the major league level. His September/October 2015 splits of .216/.308/.431/.739 even suggest that August may have been a fluke.

While the Red Sox won't be expecting Bradley to hit .300 in 2016, they can't afford for him to hit .200 either. Steamer projects Bradley to hit .257/.327/.406/.733 this season, which are solid, but unspectacular numbers. I'd be willing to bet the Red Sox would be thrilled with those splits. Even an average season at the plate for Bradley justifies his role as an everyday outfielder due to his elite defense.

Earlier this winter, manager John Farrell echoed these statements, saying that Bradley would be the team's everyday center fielder if he could become more consistent at the plate. Maybe Bradley's hot August will give the soon-to-be 26 year old the confidence he needs to succeed in 2016. Maybe it won't. At the very least, Bradley presents risk for the Red Sox at the plate. A risk work taking, but a big risk nonetheless.

Chris Young was added as a complementary piece in the outfield to be a right-handed bat that annihilates left-handed pitching. The problem isn't where to put him, as he will most likely hit for Bradley against lefties. The issue that may arise has nothing to do with Young himself, actually. Young should be a welcome addition to the lineup when he's in, however, his ABs against lefties may have consequences upon Bradley's bat.

As of now, Jackie Bradley Jr. has shown the ability to hit major league lefties at a higher rate of success than righties. Last season, Bradley hit .306/.390/.528/.918 against lefties, while only hitting .221/.308/.483/.791 against righties. His career stats aren't quite as skewed towards left-handers, but regardless, they do follow the same pattern.

Young's presumable takeover for Bradley when facing a left-hander puts even more pressure on Bradley to perform in a situation in which he has previously struggled (vs. righties). While the platoon is the correct move, considering Young's success in that role in the past, it's a little concerning to think that this may increase the chance that Bradley fails at the plate. Maybe the lefty issue is a non-issue, but at this point, anything that statistically points to more difficulty for Bradley at the plate has to be alarming.

With the ever-looming possibility that Bradley will again struggle at the plate, the Red Sox absolutely need Rusney Castillo to succeed. Castillo may be the most important piece to the line up in 2016 for that reason.

Last year, Castillo batted a disappointing .253/.288/.359/.647. He didn't provide the kind of spark expected out of a big money signing, but that isn't to say he didn't show flashes.

Castillo showed raw power at the plate, as well as all the tools to play the outfield successfully. In 2016, he needs to turn those tools into results.

The question now is, what would be a successful season for Rusney Castillo?

The Red Sox could live with only two of their outfielders producing at a high level at the plate (most likely Betts, Castillo), especially considering the defensive abilities of Bradley and Betts, but they cannot afford to have both Bradley and Castillo continue to flounder.

Steamer projects Castillo at .270/.314/.398/.712 with only nine home runs. That won't be enough. While I think nine home runs is a low projection given Castillo's power potential, it might be asking too much of him to hit the 15-20 that the team may need.

Castillo says he has shortened up his swing this offseason, pointing to struggles with high-90's fastballs.

"I've shortened up my swing a little bit more because of the faster speed in the pitching," said Castillo at Red Sox Winter Weekend "I'm confident this year I will see a difference because of that adjustment."

The Red Sox will sure need him to.

The question of whether the Red Sox are banking too heavily upon an unproven player is just too difficult to ignore. Castillo hasn't yet produced to the level the team will need in 2016, and while he has only played in 90 games over two seasons (partially due to injury), he is already 28 years old. Castillo has passed the age to be considered a young prospect.

It's all about the upside (and there's plenty of it). There just maybe be even more risk.

Either way, Bradley-Castillo will be a fascinating duo to watch, and could be one to make or break the 2016 season.

Johnny Carey is a senior at Boston College. You can find him on Twitter @JohnnyHeights.

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