Keller @ Large: Lessons Learned From Campaign 2016 So Far
BOSTON (CBS) - Finally, it's here, New Hampshire Primary day.
In theory we still have as much as four months left of this campaign before nominees are decided - or even more, if the choice gets thrown to the party conventions. But it's not too soon to reflect on some of the lessons this race has already taught us.
First, never underestimate the power of celebrity.
That isn't the only reason why Donald Trump has done better than any political novice since Ross Perot back in 1992. But it's the biggest reason, leading to big debate ratings, big crowds, and wall-to-wall media coverage. If he does well Tuesday and stays in the mix, Trump may wind up needing more than his celebrity status, but so far, it's been all he's needed.
Second, never underestimate voter fatigue with politics as usual.
On paper, Hillary Clinton looked unstoppable. But Bernie Sanders offered an articulate and impassioned alternative, and Democrats seem to be responding. He faces the same challenge as Trump going forward, expanding his base and filling some of the glaring holes in his platform, like how he's going to pay for what he promises. But once again, at least in the early going, it pays to be different.
Third, we should learn our lesson about paying too much attention to polls and pundits.
Early campaign polls measure name recognition and not much more; even later on they often lag behind changes in public opinion, as we saw in Iowa. And pundits who emphatically predict outcomes before actual votes have been cast are selling snake oil.
And one final lesson learned from Campaign 2016 - there has to be a better way of doing this.
