Reason For Optimism: Tom Brady's Last Three Losses At Denver Have One Important Thing In Common
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Tom Brady is practically matchup-proof when it comes to his career against the other 31 NFL teams. But there's one team, and particularly, one venue, that has proven to be Brady's kryptonite throughout his career: the Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium.
The "Brady sucks in Denver" narrative is a fair one, considering the quarterback's ugly 2-6 record in his career at that stadium. His career QB rating in Denver is 89.6, hardly stellar in this era of football, and he's only completed 58.94% of his passes with just 15 touchdowns to 7 interceptions.
But, like stats in general, those numbers don't tell the whole story. A closer look at Brady's losses in Denver, particularly the four defeats he's suffered there since 2006, reveals a disappointing but encouraging trend for Patriots fans.
The Patriots lost on the road at Denver in 2009, 2013 (in the playoffs), and Week 12 of this season. What do all of those games - and, for the most part, seasons - have in common? The glaring lack of at least one primary weapon for Brady's offense.
Yes, Brady did have Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to in the 2009 season. However, Patriots fans may remember that season from Bill Belichick's A Football Life special. That Patriots team was infected. They lacked mental toughness. They weren't consistently competitive, certainly not up to Brady's level. The entire season was an unnecessarily arduous grind that culminated with an embarrassing blowout at home in the AFC Wild Card round.
As ugly as the Patriots offense looked at times in 2009, the 2013 season took the struggles to frustrating new lows. Bill Belichick gave the team a "re-do" of the wide receiver position, leaving the likes of Austin Collie and rookie Aaron Dobson near the top of the depth chart. With Julian Edelman as his only consistently viable option, Rob Gronkowski out due to injury, and Aaron Hernandez out due to murdering people, Brady struggled to get anything going for most of the season. It finally caught up to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, when Brady couldn't overcome the lack of talent around him.
And that brings us to this year's regular season showdown in Denver. Brady did have Gronkowski for most of that game but lost him to a knee injury in the fourth quarter. He played the whole game without Julian Edelman, who proved last week against Kansas City that he is the true engine that makes the Pats offense hum. Danny Amendola, who has emerged as a solid secondary threat for Brady, was out for that game as well.
So what happened last time Brady played with a full complement of weapons and a reasonably healthy offense around him? The game was in 2011, and the Patriots won 41-23, led by Brady's 320 yards and 2 touchdowns on 67.7 percent passing.
This is obviously an imperfect analysis. It's a comparison of different seasons and different rosters, which makes career records against specific teams a dubious stat at best. But if you want to perpetuate the "Brady sucks in Denver" narrative, then you need to look closely at the games and find a correlation. If Brady truly plays worse in Denver than other cities, then there has to be a common thread.
This commonality was easy to find: Brady has played worse in Denver when surrounded by unhealthy, untalented, or uninspired players on offense. His only game with a fully healthy offense since 2009 was a romp.
This doesn't mean that Brady is definitely going to play well. Perhaps there really is something about the thin air and crowd noise of Denver that throws him off his game. But the only recent example of a reasonably healthy Patriots offense is a positive one. The disappointments came with Brady having to do most of the work by himself.
History may yet repeat itself on Sunday. But with a healthy Patriots offense on the field, it could happen in a good way.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
