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New England On Edge Of Weekend East Coast Snowstorm

BOSTON (CBS) - Another day closer, and no real changes to thoughts on a major developing East Coast storm.

I always tell people that in this day and age, we know too much but not enough. It's becoming routine to identify when storms are likely to hit as much as a couple weeks in advance, and even pinpoint the main area to watch. But the fine details of exact snow totals and rain/snow lines still aren't really known until 2-3 days out. It feels like we've been talking about this storm forever and it's STILL 2 days away from New England! Well in any case it's time to make some calls, so here's a look at the latest.

The main development on Wednesday was that the EPS (European model's ensemble group) ticked a bit north with accumulating snow, while the GEFS (U.S. model's ensemble group) pretty much jumped ship and said 'see ya New England.' I have to say this was a little surprising this close to the event.

The big picture remains the same - a potentially historic blizzard pounding the Mid-Atlantic, severe weather along the Gulf Coast Thursday and Friday, ice in North Carolina, and New England on the edge of it all. But the exact details are still just a bit fuzzy locally.

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But who cares what the models are saying...what's the forecast?

AMOUNTS

I think that most certainly the best chance for plowable snow is across southeastern Mass, and mostly south of say the Mansfield - Cohasset line. At this time I'd say the worst case range is 5-10", the most likely case is 3-6", and the least case range is a coating to 3".

The storm may just nudge itself north enough to lay a decent blanket of snow down here. Nothing spectacular for hardy New Englanders and not a major event, but still capable of having an impact.

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North of this area we expect a very sharp cutoff between snow and nada. I'm sure that line will move a little north or south over the next two days, but right now I'd set it at the Pike. That means towns along it (say 10 miles on either side) and into Boston are probably only looking at 1-3" of snow. And then just a little north of that, a coating to an inch tops. In fact the sun may be shining in New Hampshire and Vermont above all this stormy noise. Definitely not a northern New England event.

TIMELINE

What's the timing?

It looks like the snow shield will start brushing up with the South Coast by Saturday afternoon, with the best chance of snow Saturday evening through Sunday morning. If you have any evening plans north of Boston I don't think there will be any problems at all. South of the Pike, keep an eye on forecast updates.

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Winds will still be a concern regardless of exact track, really cranking up late Saturday through Sunday morning. The strongest gusts that may produce some scattered power outages would be across Cape Cod and the Islands, gusting 40-65 mph out of the E/NE. Those winds will be gusty inland, but not reaching damaging levels. Good news for anyone getting ready to watch the Pats Sunday afternoon!

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But those winds will help push water to the shore, and we should have pockets of at least minor coastal flooding for the Saturday night high tide cycle as well as the late morning high tide on Sunday. The full moon on Saturday means tides are already running high, so adding in a strong onshore flow should cause rough surf and erosion for east facing beaches.

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What could go wrong?

There's still time for the cutoff line between snow and no snow to jog north or south by a few tens of miles. I wouldn't rule out a complete miss or slightly more snow to the north at this point.

The top analogs for this storm are the Blizzard of '96 and the Megalopolitan Blizzard of 1983. Both of those brought significant snow into southern New England. But the 2010 'Snowmageddon' storm that was the last big event in Washington D.C. was also a huge bust here. The snow shield never made it north, and we watched it all float harmlessly out to sea.

So like all forecasts it's a fluid situation and keep tabs on any changes during Thursday and Friday.

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