Expect A Much Different Patriots Offense In AFC Championship Rematch Vs. Broncos
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. That's the matchup everyone will talk about leading up to the 2015 AFC Championship Game at Mile High between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos.
But, as semantic soldiers would point out, the quarterbacks won't literally face each other. Brady plays against the Broncos' top-ranked defense, which limited the Patriots to just 280 yards through the air in their Week 12 matchup. Brady threw three touchdowns that night, but also struggled with short-to-intermediate passes over the middle of the field, typically his strong point. His struggles can be attributed in no small part to the absence of receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.
This time, the Patriots return to Denver with "Edelmandola" in tow. They also have to face the same elite Wade Phillips defense. Brady and coach Bill Belichick have succeeded at times against Phillips' scheme with Edelman and Amendola in the lineup, but they played better in 2013 and 2014 with better protection up front. Phillips' defense will bring plenty of pressure against the Patriots' banged-up pass protectors, but will have to do it against Brady with a full complement of weapons.
Here's what to expect as the Patriots offense takes on the Broncos in their AFC Championship rematch.
Edelman & Amendola Open Things Up
In Week 12 at the Broncos, the Patriots went just 2-for-13 on third down. Both completions did go for touchdowns to Scott Chandler and Brandon Bolden, but those two can't be counted on to repeat those performances. Compare that (loosely) to the Patriots' 2013 game at the Houston Texans, also coached by Wade Phillips, when they went 5-for-12 on third down, including two catches on two targets for Edelman.
No. 11 and No. 80 also make a significant impact in the short-to-intermediate passing game, especially over the middle. In Week 12, without "Edelmandola" on the field, Brady had to rely on newcomer Keshawn Martin and a rusty Brandon LaFell for short passes and finished 20-of-36 (55.6%) passing in that area.
SEE ALSO: Howe: Attacking Middle Of The Field Key For Patriots Offense Vs. Broncos
In 2013 against the Texans, Brady was 25-of-34 (73.5%) on short passes, including 8-of-10 for 103 yards over the middle and 3-of-3 to Edelman and Amendola combined. Although that game was against different personnel, it was against Phillips' scheme. Brady was 9-of-11 (81.8%) with three touchdowns passing over the middle in the 2014 game against the Broncos, although it was at home against Jeck Del Rio's 4-3 scheme - but it still shows Brady's dominance in that part of the field.
The Patriots offense stands to be better on third down and short passes than last time against the Broncos, but they are still going up against...
Wade Phillips' 3-4 Defense
Phillips has a spotty history as a head coach, but he's unquestionably one of the best in the league at coordinating a defense. His 3-4 scheme is untraditional in the sense that the down linemen play one-gap instead of the typical two-gap, meaning they pick a hole to attack before the snap rather than reading and reacting. Phillips also likes to blitz his inside or nickel linebackers and turn his ends loose, resulting in a lot of pressure that comes in a variety of ways.
Brady will have his hands full evading the constant, varying pressure, but if he can get just enough time to throw (which could be under two seconds), he can exploit Phillips' glaring defensive weakness: the middle of the field. The Patriots under Brady & Belichick have had success in the past against Phillips' defense for this reason; it's Brady's strength against the Broncos' weakness.
Phillips was more able to leave the middle of the field open without Brady's usual weapons on the field, but will have to pay more attention to it this time. He may have effective adjustments up his sleeve, and he has the personnel to do so. But in devoting more attention to the middle of the field, Phillips is forced to do what he doesn't want to do on defense. Belichick is the best in the league at doing that to opposing coaches.
Ultimately, Phillips may not have to blitz Brady (which isn't a good idea in general) or bring extra rushers as much as he usually likes to, due to...
The Struggling Patriots Offensive Line
In the Patriots' 43-21 romp against the Broncos at Foxboro in 2014, the offensive line looked much different - and much better: from left tackle to right tackle, the starting lineup was Nate Solder - Dan Connolly - Bryan Stork - Ryan Wendell - Sebastian Vollmer, which was their starting unit for most of the season. In 2015, the offensive line has seen several different starting lineups, lost key pieces to injury, and simply played poorly when up against talented defensive fronts.
The only pieces returning from 2014 are Stork at center and Vollmer, who moves from right to left tackle. Marcus Cannon, who has struggled all season, plays on the right side and will have to deal with DeMarcus Ware, who did not play in Week 12. While the offensive line played well enough against the Kansas City Chiefs' vaunted front seven, the Broncos are better, deeper, and more multiple.
Brady won't need much time to throw the ball, but with the way Phillips likes to turn everyone on the front line loose, he may not always get it. The Patriots' offensive line has to keep up with the Broncos' variations in blitzes and gap selections and could struggle to consistently stand them up, but the return of "Edelmandola" and the short passing game over the middle will alleviate some of that pressure.
What To Expect
The Patriots have less talent and continuity on the offensive line this season than in 2013 and 2014, which has made life difficult for Brady throwing the ball. But Edelman's return will make it far easier for Brady to make throws over the middle of the field, which Phillips is likely to leave open. Otherwise, he won't be running the defense he wants to run, and that would likely mean good things for the Patriots.
The Broncos pass rush will give the Patriots more trouble on Sunday, but with "Edelmandola" back on the field, Brady's chances of picking the Broncos apart as much greater.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
