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Too Warm For Snow, Rain Storm On The Way Saturday

By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Exec. Weather Producer

BOSTON (CBS) - I think most New Englanders are forecasting a Patriots victory on Saturday. It is real tough to come into Foxboro and beat the hometown team, especially in a playoff situation. In my mind, other than Gronk's health, the next best way to ensure a Pats victory would have been some adverse weather.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick seem to be at their best when the winds are howling, the temperatures are freezing or the snow is flying. The Pats are a remarkable 33-9 in games played under 34 degrees in the Brady/Belichick era and an even more impressive 11-2 in post-season cold weather games. Add some snow to the equation and you might as well lock it up. New England has never lost a snow game in Foxboro in the history of its franchise, posting an 11-0 record in those games and outscoring their opponents by a margin of 257-77.

We do have a storm coming for game day, but unlike many previous years, this time it will not have a big effect on the game.

No snowball fights in the stands this year, our snow starved winter will continue.  More rain is in the forecast for Saturday.

In many ways, Saturday's storm has the look of a classic New England wintertime nor'easter. It is coming straight from the Gulf of Mexico, all juiced up with loads of moisture. It will ride right up the East Coast and pass pretty close to the "benchmark" location (40N 70W) for a typical, classic wintertime storm.

There is just one thing missing this go around - significant cold air. Given the current state of our environment and atmosphere, a raging El Nino, warmer than normal ocean temperatures, and an overall milder landscape than what is typical for mid-January, even the perfect storm track will NOT produce snow without an infusion of good ol' fashion Canadian cold air.

A storm track like this during last winter would have been a slam dunk big snowmaker. This time around, we just don't have enough cold air "in the bank" and there is no strong high pressure area up in Canada to pump any in. For the second weekend in a row, we've got a January rainstorm on the way.

TIMELINE

The rain arrives after midnight and by dawn a steady rainfall will have overspread the entire area. With temperatures being somewhat borderline north and west of I-495, the precipitation could start as a bit of freezing rain.

Precipitation will then come down heavier, drawing down some colder air from above and changing over to a wet snow at times.

By 8 a.m., temperatures should have risen a few degrees, enough for mainly rain in all of southern New England.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

This is a quick moving storm system, so the rain and snow will begin to taper off from south to north after 11 a.m. By 2 p.m., all the precipitation will be up in Maine, and we will be drying out, well before the Patriots and Chiefs kickoff in Foxboro.

HOW MUCH?

A solid 6-hour thump of rain for all of Eastern Massachusetts with up to an inch in the Boston area. Totals could reach as high as 2" in spots over Southeastern Massachusetts.

As for snow, anywhere outside of I-495 (to the north and west), including northern Worcester county, Western Middlesex County and up into southern New Hampshire, there could be a slushy coating to a few inches.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

More north and west, especially in higher elevations of the Monadnock Region, Berskshires and into Central Vermont and New Hampshire, there is a better chance of getting a wet and sloppy 1-3" of snow.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

The "jackpot" will once again be up in Interior Maine, and the White Mountains, where 3-6" or more is expected.

PATRIOTS FORECAST

No big weather concerns this go around at Gillette Stadium.

For early tailgaters, the rain will taper around 11 a.m. to noon. Temperatures will peak around 40 degrees in the early afternoon and fall back into the upper 30's by game time. And as you are exiting the game, hopefully celebrating the Pats big win, temperatures will be around 33-34 degrees with partial clearing.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

Go Pats!

Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ

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