Hurley's Picks: Chiefs Are Trouble For Patriots, While Panthers Can Handle Seahawks
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- I've got some bad news for the Carolina Panthers.
They're about to get some respect.
For much of the season, as the Panthers bulldozed their way to a perfect record deep into December, Cam Newton's crew thrived on the "disrespect" shown to their team by the Vegas oddsmakers and the American football-viewing public at large. Head coach Ron Rivera made a big stink about being underdogs in Dallas on Thanksgiving, Josh Norman said Dez Bryant's disrespect level was "through the roof," Norman also called out ESPN's Skip Bayless for not having enough respect for Carolina, Cam Newton snatched away a "disrespectful" sign from fans in the crowd, and Norman and Odell Beckham competed in their own little Disrespect Bowl in Week 15.
The Panthers aren't unhappy unless they're unhappy, and they're unhappy when you disrespect them.
But unfortunately, I think that trend comes to an end this week. While the Seahawks look the part of a contender, the Panthers opened as three-point favorites for Sunday. And it's more likely than not that more folks lean toward the home team for this one.
The Panthers will have to gut this one out as favorites. But fear not, Panthers; if you manage to eke this one out, we all promise to pick against you in the conference championship. It's only fair.
Picks!
(Home team in caps; Wednesday lines)
Kansas City (+5) over NEW ENGLAND
Any time you pick against Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots when they're at home in the divisional round, you run the risk of getting embarrassed. Surely, there were some folks who might have liked Tim Tebow's Broncos getting 13.5 points in 2011, or perhaps J.J. Watt's Texans getting 9.5 in 2012, or Andrew Luck's Colts getting seven in 2013. But the Patriots won those three games by a combined 69 points. Those folks were made to look like fools.
That's certainly the risk this time, as there's always the chance that despite the injuries or the rust or the lackluster final six weeks of the season, Brady takes the field on Saturday afternoon and looks like Brady. It wouldn't be stunning to see him have three touchdowns before halftime, with Alex Smith and Andy Reid looking like ... Alex Smith and Andy Reid.
But I just can't shake the idea of the Chiefs at the very least being able to keep the game close, if not pull off the upset. And it has little to do with the disparity at quarterback and everything to do with the line of scrimmage.
Tom Brady is a human, and when he faces a constant barrage of pressure, he can't do his job. And I see the Chiefs finished fourth in the NFL with 47 sacks, and I see they sacked Brian Hoyer three times last weekend. Then I see the Patriots allowing 38 sacks, which was middle-of-the-pack but nevertheless potentially troubling against the multi-faceted Chiefs front.
With Julian Edelman playing for the first time since mid-November, and with no candidate in the backfield to help shoulder the load, it's all going to fall squarely on Brady's shoulders. I don't like his chances to come away with a lopsided victory.
ARIZONA (-7) over Green Bay
Some people watched the Packers play in Washington on Sunday and believed that Aaron Rodgers' team was able to "flip the switch" now that it's January.
Me? Well, considering switches don't exist, that's not what I saw. I saw a Redskins team run out of gas and lost their will to tackle in the second half.
Basing my opinion on three months of football and not 30 minutes in Landover, I still believe the Packers aren't a very good football team.
The Cardinals are a better team. The Cardinals walloped the Packers 38-8 a few weeks ago. The Packers are returning to the scene of the crime and will now be much better because they've ... flipped a switch?
Facing a much better team from a much better division that has the additional benefit of extra rest, that "switch" may be harder to find this week.
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "The Packers stink."
Note: Sure, it looks bad right now, this may well end up being true. A win over the Redskins doesn't technically change that.
CAROLINA (-3) over Seattle
Too many people are buying into the Seahawks. They're ignoring two things:
1. The Seahawks lost last weekend. Sure, they technically won. But any jabroni could have made that kick. That was a loss.
2. The Seahawks may have finished the season on a hot streak, going 8-2. But they racked up those wins against some bad teams.
Point No. 1 is obviously a bit of a stretch, but come on. Kickers were 99 percent on that kick this year. Maybe that clunker was just the football gods throwing the Seahawks players a bone for Pete Carroll's and Darrell Bevell's decision to rob them of a Super Bowl last February.
Whatever the case may be, point No. 2 is the real issue that seemingly nobody has properly discussed. The Seahawks' eight wins in the final 10 weeks of the season came against the 49ers, Cowboys, Steelers, Vikings, Ravens, Browns and then the Cardinals, though that was in Week 17 when the Cardinals had nothing to gain and went with Drew Stanton in the second half.
When they faced the Cardinals in Seattle in an actually meaningful game, they lost. They also lost to the Rams.
So forgive me for tempering my excitement over what the Seahawks have done over the past couple of months. They're not a final four team.
RQFLWP: "That being said, they should have no problem going to a place where they dominated the opponent six weeks ago and do it again. And Pete Carroll's gum-chewing will live to see another day."
Note: Not only was I wrong about the Seahawks having no issues in Minnesota, but I also failed to foresee Pete Carroll callously chucking his gum onto the turf before halftime. Pete! Someone is assuredly going to step in your gum! You monster!
Pittsburgh (+7) over DENVER
I'm making this pick based on one major assumption and one undeniable reality.
The assumption: Ben Roethlisberger is fine.
No, I don't think he or the Steelers are necessarily lying about sprained AC joint and torn shoulder ligaments. I just think ... look, this is a guy who went flying off a motorcycle without a helmet and walked away mostly unscathed. He played in an NFL game about 10 minutes after having an appendectomy. The guy is borderline indestructible. I think that surgery was just to throw people off the scent. A sprained shoulder for him is nothing.
The undeniable reality: PEYTON MANNING IS PLAYING!
Have you guys seen Peyton Manning play football this year? It's not good. It's not good at all, you guys.
Peyton Manning came this close to leading the league in interceptions. Blake Bortles went and ruined that by throwing two picks in Week 17. Regardless, Manning threw the second-most interceptions this season despite having only the 28th-most attempts. That means 27 men threw the ball more times than he did, but only one managed to throw more interceptions. In fact, 21 quarterbacks threw at least 100 more passes than Manning, 15 quarterbacks threw at least 200 passes more than Manning, and eight quarterbacks with at least 250 passes more than manning. Philip Rivers threw 330 more passes than Manning, but four fewer interceptions.
Remarkable.
And some were so, so bad. Very bad. Remember the one in overtime against the Browns? Bad. Remember when he was going to break the all-time passing record -- in Indianapolis no less -- but threw a pick instead? That was bad, too. Remember when he threw four interceptions and only completed five passes against the Chiefs? Bad, bad, bad and bad.
Even if the Broncos' defense is good enough to carry the day, that's not the recipe for a seven-plus-point victory.
As inspiring as it was to see ol' Peyton hand the ball to his running back in Week 17, I've seen nothing this season to believe Peyton Manning is fit to win a playoff game ... and that's before we even explore the man's personal playoff history.
As for my own playoff history, I went 2-2 last week, which was slightly behind my 4-0 goal. But really I was just building some suspense for the big 4-0 reveal this week. It's called drama, people. Ever heard of it?
Last week: 2-2
Regular season: 115-138-3
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
