Which AFC Wild Card Team Is Most Likely To Pull The Upset?
By Matt Dolloff
BOSTON (CBS) -- Only the NFL Playoff format could produce four home teams who are underdogs in the Wild Card round. That is likely what is going down this Sunday when the 2015 NFL Playoffs kick off: barring late changes to the betting odds, four teams will enter someone else's stadium as the favorite to win.
It's hard to blame oddsmakers for betting against the home teams this weekend. All four face teams, coaches, or quarterbacks with a decided advantage in playoff experience and success.
The Matchups
The most notable home underdog this weekend is the Cincinnati Bengals, who go from barely missing a first round bye to underdogs at home against the 6-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals are 0-6 in playoff games under head coach Marvin Lewis, so until they prove they can actually win a game under him, they deserve to be underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers and two-time Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger.
In Minnesota, the Vikings have drawn arguably the toughest card in the NFC Playoffs. The Seattle Seahawks enter January red-hot, winning six of their last seven games and impressively dismantling the Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 17 (granted, the game was meaningless for Arizona, but it was still an embarrassing defeat). They have second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater making his playoff debut against arguably the most dangerous defense in the conference, so it's understandable to stack the deck against Minnesota even though they will be at home and have a solid defense of their own.
The Washington Redskins made the playoffs because they were the least mediocre team in the NFC East, but hey they were 9-7 so they must be decent. They are slight underdogs against the Green Bay Packers, perhaps for no reason other than the man who wears No. 12 for Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers has had a down year by his standards and the Packers have not been consistent this season, which ended by losing the NFC North to the Vikings in Week 17.
However, the Packers are only favored by one point according to Sportsbook. That's basically a pick 'em and the odds could change multiple times before Sunday. But again, considering the Packers' huge advantage at QB and superior playoff experience, they should be favored and should be able to get the win. If Rodgers falters in this one, perhaps it's time to call his ability to consistently play well in big games into question...
The Houston Texans, meanwhile, beat out the rest of the woeful AFC South at 9-7 but face the hottest team in the AFC in the Kansas City Chiefs, who march into Houston as 3.5-point favorites. After starting the season 1-5, the Chiefs reeled off 10 straight wins to close out the regular season and came within a Broncos loss of leapfrogging Denver for the AFC West crown. They have several legitimate game-changers on defense, led by pass rushing monster Justin Houston, stalwart safety Eric Berry, and defensive rookie of the year candidate Marcus Peters.
It will be a tall task for the Texans offense to move the ball against Kansas City, especially considering the Chiefs match up so well with Houston's strength. DeAndre Hopkins vs. Peters will be one of the top matchups to watch this weekend. If Peters wipes Hopkins out, the Texans will struggle to remain competitive in the game. But J.J. Watt might have something to say about that going up against the Chiefs' mediocre-at-best offensive line.
The Verdict
In my take-it-however-you-want opinion, my top pick to pull off the rare home playoff upset (that certainly never happens in Foxboro) is the Bengals. I know, it's a tough bet to depend on a team that has literally never won a playoff game with their current head coach and QB situation. But as far as personnel on the field? They are almost completely healthy (save for the QB, but who knows, maybe McCarron plays better than Andy Dalton has in past playoff games). On paper they have arguably the most talented team in the league. And the Steelers may have crept into "overrated" territory with how much they have scored in recent weeks; you can throw on their secondary and nobody on the Steelers could possibly handle A.J. Green.
Furthermore, Ben Roethlisberger has not played as well as it may seem down the stretch. He has thrown six interceptions to just six touchdowns in his last four games. The Steelers beat the Bengals in Cincy in Week 14, but Roethlisberger could not find the end zone and their three touchdowns came on two runs by DeAngelo Williams (who is currently hampered by an ankle injury) and an interception returned by William Gay. This adds up to a much tougher challenge for the Steelers than you may think, and ultimately, a monkey-off-the-back moment for Marvin Lewis and the Bengals.
Who's your top pick to pull off the upset this weekend? Vote below.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
