What Are The Chances Of A White Christmas In Boston?
BOSTON (CBS) -- Most likely when it comes to the topic of snow, you fall on one side or the other. You are either a snow lover or a hater, there typically isn't much gray area. Which are you?
Classic symptoms of a snow lover include:
-Obsessive watching of local weathercasts, flipping from station to station, not stopping until one of the meteorologists says the "S word."
-Digging through the myriad weather models online (fully aware you have no real idea what you are looking at), searching for any sign or chance of snow.
-Putting your "snow gear" out for everyone to see. . . shovels at the ready, reflectors for the plow drivers line your driveway, starting up your snowblower each weekend just to be sure it is primed and ready. . . perhaps prompting your neighbors to ask, "Is there snow coming? I hadn't heard!"
Or perhaps you fall into the snow "hater" crowd.
You may be infected if you show any of these signs:
-Denial. Your patio furniture is still out and you are still wearing shorts regularly.
-Anger. Your neighbors are hanging Christmas lights and it is waaaay too early. . . and what's with the radio stations playing Christmas music earlier every year!!
-Jealousy. All those snow lovers, what are they so happy about? All those skiers get so much joy out of those white flakes of death, all they mean to you are pain and suffering.
Whether you fall into the snow lover or hater stereotype, I think there is one thing we can all agree on: It feels a lot more like Christmas and the holidays when there is some snow on the ground, particularly on Christmas morning. A little light snow falling from the sky sure does set the mood right on Christmas Day, doesn't it?
What Is 'A White Christmas'?
One of the most common questions we get in the weather office around this time each year is, "are we going to have a white Christmas?"
First, let's define what exactly is meant by a "white Christmas." Believe it or not there is an ACTUAL definition and it varies from country to country!
Here in the United States, a white Christmas means there must be at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. Christmas morning. Fairly specific right?
In other parts of the world, the term white Christmas denotes something very different. For example, in England, snow must be observed, falling from the sky at some point on Christmas Day.
So, historically speaking, how frequent or rare is a white Christmas (1 inch of snow on the ground) in the Boston area? Records go back over 100 years in Boston and it turns out that Boston has a white Christmas about 25 percent of the time. As you would imagine, those odds climb higher and higher the farther north and west you travel from the city. Worcester is closer to 60 percent, while portions of Central and Northern New England are 80 percent or higher!
This Year's Outlook
How about this year? Doesn't take a seasoned meteorologist to tell you, it has been unusually warm and dry here for quite some time. A large portion of Southern New England is in what is considered to be a moderate drought, down some 6 inches of rainfall since July.
On top of that, all the major cities in New England just had a top 10 warmest autumn season and December so far has been no different. And, as of this writing, the outlook for the next 1-2 weeks is for more of the same across the entire Eastern half of the United States. In fact, we may challenge several high temperature records in New England this weekend!
So the way I see it now, if we are going to get snow on the ground in time for Christmas Day, it is going to have to come in the days just before the 25th. There are some signs that right around that time, we *could* finally get a push of Arctic air into the east. This is a long ways off and I certainly wouldn't bank on it. El Nino has just come off its strongest November on record and the majority of the ocean water surround the United States, both in the Pacific and Atlantic is unusually warm. Long story short, in order for us to get any significant snow or cold, there would have to be a major pattern shift in the days leading up to Christmas.
I would rank our chances of a white Christmas this year very low. . . perhaps as low as 5 percent right now in Boston. Best chance of seeing some snow on the ground on Christmas morning would be in Northern New England, but even there it is much lower than the average year.
The good news is many of the northern ski areas are already open. So if you just gotta get your snow "fix," strap on the skis and head north. Perhaps you could steal some of their "white gold" and bring it home for the holidays!
Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ
