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A Very Warm Autumn Wraps Up - What's Next?

YES - I know the solstice is on December 21st. I say this in preparation of the adamant responses that it's not winter yet. But as is the seasonal tradition, here's the explanation. 'Meteorological Fall' is September, October, and November.

2015 Calendar November(1)

All record keeping when it comes to warmest, coldest, snowiest, driest, etc fall refers to those months only. All meteorological seasons are in 3-month chunks that are associated with each particular season. Winter is December-January-February, and so on. In other words, we don't give a hoot about solstices and equinoxes in the world of weather. The astronomers can have 'em.

So how did this autumn stack up? Warm. Very warm. Nearly all of the Northeast saw a Top 6 warmest autumn on record.

You can thank September and November for that (with October being right down the middle average).

In Boston, September was the 3rd warmest on record. This November tied for 9th warmest on record, with an average temperature of 48.6 degrees.

So the two unusual months helped carry up the entire fall season to one of the warmest ever recorded, dating back to the late 1800's.

I've spotted roses still blooming in Boston and on Cape Cod and I've had several guest appearances from bulbs that were planted this fall but decided it was already time to rise and shine. Should we even mention the winter moth invasion that's been well underway?

2015 Drought Monitor(4)

It was also quite dry, as I'm sure you noticed. We're still sitting in a significant precipitation deficit for the year, and four of the past five months have featured well below average rainfall. I can't recall a more tranquil fall than this one. Seems there was barely a storm to discuss. No tropical activity nearby, no major nor'easters...barely even a lightning strike over all three months. November - often the gloomiest month of the year, only had 8 cloudy days (the same number of days with crystal clear skies). Pretty remarkable - but weather has a way of  balancing out. No doubt in my mind things will pick back up in due time.

oct22DRY

However, there's no change to the outlook ahead - models continue to indicate a December that won't be harsh in this part of the world. Guidance like the CFS and ECMWF have steadfastly show above average temperatures for the month as a whole covering nearly all of Canada and a good chunk of the U.S. to boot. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to stay positive most of the month, keeping persistent Arctic outbreaks at bay. That's not to say it won't be chilly; it is December after all. But I wouldn't expect any prolonged periods of frigid winter air.

This pattern also isn't conducive for snow. We haven't had any measurable snow so far, and there isn't any in sight until at least the middle of the month. Having a snowless October/November isn't unusual (happens 43% of the time in Boston). But if we could see a snowless December it would be a different story. That's only happened four times on record.

december

There are hints that the pattern could become a bit more 'exciting' toward the second half of the month, but there may not be enough cold air around to translate into snowfall. Something we'll keep an eye on for now, but no reason to rush out and stock up on shovels yet unless you're just the type of person who likes to be prepared!

Bar Graph 3d Grow Dec snow

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