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Soaking Rain On The Way

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2015 Drought Monitor(3)

Every time our rain deficit creeps up toward double digits, we finally get a storm to knock it back down a bit. A consistent pattern of the past several months and it will repeat itself this week. We're watching the same storm system which has brought blizzard conditions to parts of the Plains and numerous tornadoes over the past couple of days (a rarity so far west for November). It will lose some of its punch by the time it rolls into New England, which is great news for us. It means we get some beneficial rain without too much of the mess!

Rainfall: A good soaking but no flood big flood concerns

With a deep meridional flow (south to north) and an amplified pattern, I'd expect this line to take its sweet time getting to us. Right now it looks like showers should break out Thursday afternoon/evening, but the steadier stuff will wait until Thursday night. Overall, our steadiest and heaviest rain should fall late Thursday night through the first half of Friday. There's a plume of moisture-laden air pushing northward ahead of this front which should help to squeeze out a widespread 1-2" rain event. No flooding concerns with that except for nuisance flooding on the streets during heavy downpours, since it's been so dry. But we could hear some rumbles of thunder mixed in, especially on Friday morning as the low-level jet pushes into the region. The rain will taper off from west to east during the afternoon, and may not depart far eastern Massachusetts until the evening hours.

friam

A tongue of moisture-rich air will be riding up along the East Coast early Friday. Combined with a wave of low pressure on the front, it should be good enough to produce a solid rainfall! Source: Weatherbell

Winds: Picking up Thursday night/Friday but not damaging

From a wind perspective it will get gusty, but not expecting anything damaging at this point. Southeast MA can likely expect S/SE gusts in the 35-45mph range, which won't make it fun to be outside but it also shouldn't be enough to case any major issues. Those highest gusts will be felt along the South Coast, Cape, and Islands...with lower gusts mainly in the 20-35mph range inland.

windsfri

Some healthy winds just above the surface on Friday morning should make for windy times across eastern MA. Source: Wright-Weather.com

Temperatures: A brief warm-up

How about temperatures? Well the south/southeast winds aren't our warmest wind direction, but I do think we'll manage to notch a couple more days of well above average readings. The majority of Thursday will be in the 40s away from the South Coast as cold air will take a while to erode. But by evening the 50s will be pushing north, and we'll get our high temp of the day at 11:59pm before the stroke of midnight. I'm thinking in Boston we'll be close to 57F, give or take a couple, by then. The opposite story will be true for Friday. Our warmest temps will be early in the morning (56-62F) before cooler air starts to push in gradually during the day. By the evening it should be more like the upper 40s to low 50s, with the coolest air to the west of Boston.

temps

We'll enjoy a few hours of mild temperatures drawn up on southerly winds - mainly late Thursday night and into the early hours of Friday. Source: Weatherbell

Up Next: Interesting things to watch

The weekend is where things start to get a little more interesting. There are a few disturbances in the flow that will need to be watched over the next several days. The first one is on Saturday - an area of low pressure that swings through the Great Lakes. All indications are that this one will intensity but pull up to the west of us. That's a warmer track for New England, and typically keeps us on the snowless side. But we'll have to keep a close eye on it in case some of its energy gets transferred to the coast. At this time that doesn't look likely, but nevertheless a cold front swinging through could bring some wet snowfall mixed in with rain showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Nothing that would cause issues is expected...more a fun novelty and sign of the times.

active

A more active pattern ahead is setting up shop as we move into the back half of the month. Source: WSI Energycast

After that, models diverge quite a bit. That's not surprising in what's becoming a very active pattern with plenty of jet stream action getting in the mix across the country. The GFS takes a short-wave down through the Great Lakes and New England, bringing snow showers along with it. The ECMWF keeps that energy farther north and away from us. Neither look significant, but it's something to monitor.

Overall what we're seeing are some wintry signs starting to make themselves known, and a cooler pattern compared to the very mild start of the month. That will take a bite out of our attempt for a Top 10 warmest November, but we'll just have to see how it all pans out in the end. Currently Boston is on pace for its warmest overall autumn ever recorded by +0.5F. It has certainly been an easy one to take.

 

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