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Patricia's Remnants To Deliver A Windswept Rain

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Who's ready to rake?! Inevitably there's always an October storm that kicks up the wind and sends nature's confetti down from our backyard maples and oaks. This year has been an anomaly and an absolute treat - cobalt blue skies and a surprisingly spectacular foliage. Barely a storm to be found. In fact, the wettest day in Boston so far this month saw a meager 0.34" of rain. Pretty unusual by October standards. But much like September, all the dry weather up front will give way to a late-month storm to help put a dent in the deficit.

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What was once Hurricane Patricia is now an 'extra-tropical' cyclone and an impressive one at that. It brought winds gusting 50+mph on Monday along the Gulf Coast and has brought up to a foot of rain for some locations. Source: NOAA MODIS (Image from Monday, October 26th)

Remember Patricia? Hard to forget all the headlines after the beast of a hurricane reached max winds of 200mph and become the strongest recorded storm in the western hemisphere before weakening as it approached Mexico last Friday. The hurricane itself got shredded apart as all storms that attempt to cross the peaks of Mexico do. But its moisture and some of its energy managed to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, and it is now reborn as a robust extra-tropical cyclone. After producing widespread 5-10" rain totals along the Gulf Coast with some areas reporting 10"+, it's about to head in our direction. We're not expecting anything that big, but a very moist atmosphere for late October will streak up the East Coast and arrive here on Wednesday.

Let's play good news bad news with this one....

Good: Beneficial Rain

I think it's been interesting to note that the areas pounded hardest by snowstorms last winter have been the driest since April. Coastal and southern New England have been parched pretty much all the way since the snow stopped flying. The graphic below shows rain deficits April through September, but we've added another 2"+ to those deficits this month. Needless to say some rain would not be a bad thing. I'm thinking a widespread 1-2" of rain will fall Wednesday into Thursday, with some localized totals 2-3". That's not enough to cause any river flooding, but may produce some nuisance street flooding during the heavier downpours.

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Good: Timing Is Key

While showers should start breaking out Wednesday afternoon, it looks like the majority of this wet weather will fall later Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning. If we're lucky the downpours will wait until the commute ends Wednesday evening, and we'll be updating the arrival time over the next 24-36 hours. But getting all that rain overnight would limit any travel headaches. Go to bed with rain pounding on the roof, wake up and the lawn is happy. Only a little bit longer before we say goodbye to that green grass so we'll take every day of it we can get.

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Bad: The Wind!

A strong low-level jet will push into the area Wednesday night, and while an inversion may limit how much of that wind gets down to the surface, it should be enough to cause some issues. Right now I'm thinking widespread gusts 30-40mph, with gusts 40-55mph at the South Coast, Cape and Islands. That would be enough to possibly cause some scattered outages, bring down some limbs, and probably quite a bit of the beautiful fall foliage. Those higher winds may not mix down to the ground level farther inland, but there's a good shot there will be plenty to start raking up once the storm departs.

2015 Wind Forecast

Good: Drying Out Before Thursday Night Football

Have you noticed there seems to be a curse with the Patriots and Thursday Night Football games? It pours almost every single time. Not so this time around. Looks like the heaviest rain will be ending Thursday morning, with just a few remaining showers during the day itself. It's also going to be very mild - nearing 70 Thursday afternoon! Drier and cooler air will be moving in on a gusty west/southwest breeze during the evening, so it'll feel cooler by kickoff. But temperatures will be well above average for this time of year and you can leave the poncho at home for this match-up.

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Bad: High Astronomical Tides Could Lead to Pockets of Flooding

Wednesday's high tide is the highest astronomical tide of the month (and one of the highest of the year) across the area, with Thursday just a touch below that. The strong and persistent south-southeasterly winds should push some water up into the South Coast, Cape and Islands. These S/SE facing areas could see splashover and pockets of minor coastal flooding with Thursday morning's high tide cycle in particular. I'd expect the National Weather Service to issue some coastal flood advisories for the South Coast.

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