Hurley's Picks: Pats-Jets Dogfight On Tap, While Eli Manning's Giants Set To Look Like Champions
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- In the NFL, there are a handful of teams that have gotten off to an underwhelming start. They are teams that entered September with playoff aspirations and dreams of winning the Super Bowl, but they are teams that are hovering at or below .500 here in late October.
The good news for those teams is that there's still time to turn it around and make a playoff run.
I'm hoping the same is true for me.
I lamented last week just how difficult Vegas has made the old pick-making game this year, and I feel that it was a bit of a karmic occurrence that my worst week followed. When you start a week by making excuses, you're going to get your keister handed to you. It's just science.
So this week, rather than making excuses, it's time to stick by some principles, get back to basics, and make some better picks. Among the tenets that will be put into play this week and every week:
--Cancel the NFC South. Just cancel it. Don't need it. (The Panthers can join the AFC South and the Jaguars can join NFL Europe.)
--Kirk Cousins and Jay Gruden are going to have to be getting at least nine points if he's playing a .500-or-better team in order to even consider picking them.
--Andy Reid and Alex Smith are just a human LOL.
--The Broncos. The Broncos??? The ... Broncos. (Can't quite figure out the Broncos.)
--Even the best teams in the league (Green Bay, New England) can struggle to cover a big spread against inferior opponents. Tread carefully.
--Don't pick anybody. Everybody stinks.
That last one is admittedly going to be tough to follow. But let's give it a whirl.
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
Seattle (-6.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
So long as the field doesn't literally give way to sinkholes, the struggling Seahawks should be able to regain their footing in the NFC West against Fartin' Jim Tomsula & The 49ers. (That's the name of my new band, in case you were wondering. I play the most important kazoo role in music history.)
I do miss when these Seahawks-Niners games used to be the most brutal, captivating games of the year. Now it's just a couple of 2-4 teams trying to put together a respectable showing. I do think having Macklemore whispering sweet nothings into the ears of their quarterback gives the Seahawks a slight edge.
Buffalo (-6) over Jacksonville (London)
It's tempting to take the points, it really is. Because at first blush, the Bills appear to be a mess. You've got Mario Williams complaining about the scheme, you've got Marcell Dareus joining the chorus, and then you've got Rex Ryan responding right back, dropping a "I've been cussed at by better than them" hammer on Wednesday.
In other words ... things are going exactly how you'd expect for a Rex-coached team. When other teams would succumb to the chaos is when Rex-coached teams typically thrive.
And let me just add the obligatory "why on God's green Earth do we keep sending the worst teams to London?" comment that we're all mandated by law to make.
Minnesota (-2.5) over DETROIT
The Bears-Lions game last week set back the game of football 100 years. One-hundred years.
Jim Caldwell still has a job. That's insane. He kicked a field goal while trailing by seven with less than three minutes last week. I don't care if you end up winning that game; you're coming into my office after that game just so I can kick you the hell out of my office.
Oh, and the Vikings are decent and have been steady since that season-opening stinker in San Francisco. So. You know. That's the pick.
Atlanta (-3.5) over TENNESSEE
In 2008 and '09, Ken Whisenhunt remarkably led the Cardinals to a 19-13 record and a Super Bowl appearance. He is 29-56 in his other five-plus seasons as an NFL head coach. He is 3-17 as the Titans' head coach. He is 8-29 in his last three seasons as an NFL head coach.
What I'm trying to say here is that he might not be very good. And his 2-14 team from last year looks like it might -- might -- improve to 4-12 this year.
INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) over New Orleans
It's a frightening proposition to pick the Colts after they ran the single worst play in NFL history last week, but the Saints just travel so, so bad. The Saints took a trip to Arizona; they lost by 12. They took a trip to Carolina; the lost by five. They took a trip to Philly; they lost by 22. They've been outscored 97-58 away from home, and they're 10-14 on the road since 2012. It's a problem.
Add in the plain fact that the Saints are just not a very good team (save for prime-time games at home), and you have to take the team that ran the single worst play in NFL history a week ago. And you thought making picks was easy?
(In the Mostly Irrelevant But Mildly Entertaining Factoid Of The Week, I'll tell you that the last time these two teams met, the Saints won 62-7. Sixty-two to seven! Sean Payton coached from the press box after undergoing surgery. So the Saints won by 55, essentially without their head coach. Curtis Painter went 9-for-17 for 67 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Then-Colts coach Jim Caldwell "said" after the game, "That team played better than we did in every area and we just got whooped across the board.")
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "We're all set on the Saints now, right? OK, good. Just checking before I spent any more time thinking about them."
Note: I know, I know, I know. Prime-time game in New Orleans, I should know better.
KANSAS CITY (+2) over Pittsburgh
This goes against my "Human LOL" credo, but I can't rightfully believe that Landry Jones is going to have a successful day when Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are involved. If Ben Roethlisberger is able to magically heal in time to play, then consider this pick flipped. But if the guy who sold me my pumpkin at the local farm is playing QB ...
... then I'm out on the Steelers. Consider that a new rule.
Cleveland (+5.5) over ST. LOUIS
That's an awfully large spread to cover for a team that scored 16.8 points per game, which is good enough for second-fewest in the NFL, just 0.1 points better than 32nd-ranked San Francisco.
The Browns have been surprisingly reliable (4-2) against the spread this year. They've covered three straight spreads, getting just 4.5, 6, and 3.5 points. There's reason enough to like the Browns. There's still little reason to watch this particular football game.
RQFLWP: " I'm not going to sit here and micturate into the wind. Instead I'll just accept the fact that every possible bounce will go the Broncos' way. Even if Peyton Manning throws three awful picks and they look doomed, the Broncos will manage to win. That's how 2015 is going to go."
Note: This is EXACTLY how this game played out. Cleveland was handed the win multiple times yet they still kicked it away. Way to prove me right, Cleveland.
MIAMI (-4) over Houston
Same reasoning as last week, basically. I'm taking the team with this guy at the helm:
Plain. Simple.
New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND
This isn't an overreaction to the Colts keeping it surprisingly close last week with the Patriots. It's more a reflection of:
A) These two teams tend to play close contests.
B) The injuries on the New England offensive line are bound to slow them down.
C) This is just a bad line.
On point A, the Super Bowl-champion Patriots won last year's games over the 4-12 Jets by one point and two points. The year before, the Jets won by three and the Patriots won the other meeting by three. You have to go back to the Butt Fumble Game to find a blowout, and even that year, the Patriots won the other meeting by just a field goal.
On point B, the Patriots are thin at tackle. They managed to piece it together against the Colts, but the Jets are slightly more talented up front. Expect some drive-disrupting plays by the Jets.
And C, nine points? Come on now. I've said to anyone who would listen that the Patriots may be the best team in the NFL, but that doesn't mean they're a juggernaut. This isn't 2007. Randy Moss ain't walking through that door!
RQFLWP: "What in the world is going on with this line? It could be 28 and I'd still feel pretty confident in taking the Patriots. My goodness."
Note: Honestly though, if I could go back in time, I'd make the same damn pick.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
I've seen enough Kirk Cousins for two lifetimes. Maybe even three lifetimes. Neither the Bucs nor the Redskins are a good bet. Just run away from this one. There's no need.
Oakland (+4) over SAN DIEGO
How about this for A Very Weird Stat But One To Which I Will Nevertheless Stake My Life: The underdog is 11-1 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between these division rivals.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) over Dallas
Look, all of your opinions about the Giants are wrong and silly. We've known the Eli Manning-era Giants to be one thing: all over the place. One week, they look like the worst team in the league, then before you know it they're hoisting a Lombardi Trophy as confetti falls from the sky. Eli himself occasionally looks like he's never played the sport of football before, as he stands like a statue in the pocket and takes sack after sack after sack while mixing in a few fumbles and intentional grounding penalties for good measure. Then the next week he'll lead a Joe Montana-esque comeback.
That's just what Eli and the Giants are at this point. So forget about last week in Philly. Ancient history. Now watch the Giants go and win a stupid Super Bowl.
(Also: Not taking Matt Cassel on the road, making his first start since last September. In his last three seasons, he's thrown 20 TDs and 25 INTs. This past summer, he couldn't win the QB competition in Buffalo against Tyrod Taylor. I'm all set on Mr. Cassel.)
CAROLINA (-3) over Philadelphia
Until Sam Bradford stops wearing the long sleeves like a dweeb backup punter, I can't like the Eagles in any game, really. The fact that the guy doesn't even call the plays to the offense is just disturbing. Watching all 11 guys look to the sideline for the play is just madness. This ain't the Pac-12, Chip.
ARIZONA (-7.5) over Baltimore
Where is the pride in Baltimore? My goodness. The Ravens have lost to the 49ers, the Browns and the Raiders. This is a team that waltzed into Foxboro last year and took two 14-point leads before getting trick played to death and eventually losing. But that could have very well been a Super Bowl team. And now they're 1-5 and their season is over before Halloween. Grim stuff down in Baltimore.
And while the Cardinals may be a mixed bag, when they win games, they win games big. The average margin of victory in their four wins is 25.5 points. So if you think they're going to win, you shouldn't be scared of the spread.
Last week: 5-8-1
Season: 40-49-2
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
