Hurricane Joaquin Continues To Move Out To Sea
BOSTON (CBS) - The trend started east on Thursday morning and that trend has continued with most guidance all now taking Joaquin out to sea. That doesn't mean we're 100% in the clear yet, though. It is expected to pass relatively close to New England late Monday into Tuesday, at least in terms of hurricane distance. A few hundred miles isn't a ton of breathing room, so we'll keep a close eye on it over the weekend. Overall the trend has been strongly to the east so confidence is much higher that it will stay away. It's good news for us, but not for Bermuda. The forecast track now takes it closer to the island nation, and may make a very close pass late Sunday.
One thing for certain is that it will be avoiding the Mid-Atlantic. If it comes anywhere close to the U.S. coast, it would be Cape Cod. In any case rough surf and strong NE winds will continue into the weekend, producing some erosion and splashover at the shore. Minor flooding is expected with high tide cycles both on Saturday and Sunday as wind gusts stay in the 20-45mph range.
There will be widespread weather impacts on the East Coast, but none of them are from Joaquin directly. Images of coastal flooding, strong winds, and erosion from New England to South Carolina are all due to a stout onshore flow of wind. In a way, that wind would not be there without Joaquin, even though the storm will be far away. All of it is being created by a tight pressure gradient between Joaquin and a strong area of high pressure over southern Canada. When pressure changes dramatically over distance, you get strong winds. That wind is piling up water, inundating many coastal towns (especially to our south), and causing some damage.
The historic flooding expected in the Carolinas (especially South Carolina) is part of a plume of tropical moisture being squeezed out along a front. You can trace that plume of moisture-rich air back to Joaquin, again even though the storm will be far away. Some parts of South Carolina are expecting 10-20" of rain with isolated totals up to 25"! It may be the worst flooding since Hurricane Floyd if those totals verify.
