Hurley's Picks: Patriots Can Handle Big Bad Bills, While Seahawks Are Headed For 0-2 Start
BOSTON (CBS) -- It's officially Week 2 in the NFL, but before jumping forward too far, it's important from a picks-making perspective to assess what we learned in Week 1.
The Surprises
The NFC South Is Not The Worst Division In Football
Last year, things got so bad with the NFC South (collective record: 16-35 vs. non-NFC South teams) that I refused to write about their games. I went Jerry Seinfeld on everybody and rambled on about something or another, rather than actually discuss those putrid teams. But hey, the division is 2-2 in non-divisional games thus far. Good for them!
The AFC East Is The Best Division In Football
Facts are facts, and the 4-0 AFC East is clearly an absolute powerhouse.
Marcus Mariota Can Ball
Posting a perfect passer rating in your NFL debut is not bad, I suppose.
Jim Tomsula Is The Greatest Head Coach In 49ers History
Again, facts are facts, and you can't argue with the truth.
I did not see that coming.
Sam Bradford Loves Big Sleeves And Interceptions
Seriously, what is this look?
He looks like the backup JV quarterback on your 1997 high school team. He looks like a dang punter. Get this man some shorter sleeves.
The Non-Surprises
Peyton Manning Has No Arm
With the way Twitter exploded with folks shouting that Manning is all washed up, you would have thought we all hit a time machine back to 2010. In case you hadn't noticed, Manning has had zero arm strength for three years running. Hasn't really stopped him from throwing a million touchdowns every year though, has it? Maybe postpone your grave-dancing sessions for the time being. I know I've learned that lesson myself.
The Colts Can't Play Defense
I don't know who runs the Colts*, but they were apparently unaware that it was their defense that stunk out loud last season, not their offense. But they went out and added Andre Johnson and Frank Gore and thought things would work out for them. So far, it's looking like a suspect strategy.
*I'm just kidding, obviously. I know Ryan Grigson and Jim Irsay run the Colts. Hilarious, really.
Eli Manning Can Be Confused
Look, when you're the starting QB for Ole Miss, they don't require you to learn unnecessary things like "counting" or "subtraction" or even "numbers." So do the Cowboys have two timeouts or one? Bah, who can keep track?! Just make sure you don't score a touchdown, Rashad, so I can throw it away and stop the clock on third down, on two on two, ready, break!
The Texans Can't Win Without Smash Math
Speaking of subtraction, here's some math for you.
Houston Texans + Home Opener + Smash Mouth = Win.
Houston Texans + Home Opener - Smash Mouth = Loss.
Idiots.
Anyway, there might have been a few more non-surprises, but frankly, I'm seeing red while thinking about the fact that the Texans failed to extend an offer to Smash Mouth to open their season, forcing lead singer Steve Harwell to get hammered and go on stage at an oyster festival in Norwalk, Connecticut. The humanity of it all is just too much to bear.
As for the picks, I took a bit of a Week 1 beating, going 6-9-1. An 0-2 Monday night was a particularly cruel way to end the week, but any time you can make it through the first week of the unpredictable season in relatively decent shape, you have to take it.
(For any new readers, Week 2 marks the re-introduction of Ridiculous Quotes From Last Week's Picks, or RQFLWP, where I lampoon myself before anybody else can.)
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
KANSAS CITY (-3) over Denver
As I stated already, Peyton Manning is not done. He displayed zero arm strength on Sunday, but that's really nothing new. I've declared him dead every September since 2012, yet he's thrown 131 touchdowns and 37 interceptions since then. The guy has proven plenty capable of making his little flutter pass system work -- even if it's gotten some receivers killed along the way. (If Manning has any decency, then he's pumping a decent amount of cash to Wes Welker these days.)
In fact, Manning's terrible game Sunday had nothing to do with his lack of arm strength and everything to do with the fact that he got hit. A lot. Manning was sacked four times and hit five times, and everybody knows that in the rare instances when Manning has to deal with taking some body contact, he flat-out stinks. That's what happened Sunday.
And unfortunately for Manning, just four days after taking that relative beating, he's got to face a Chiefs defense that racked up five sacks against Houston on Sunday. Good luck with that, Mr. Manning
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "Alex Smith stinks. ... It's true."
Note: Look, Alex Smith can have 100 games where he throws for 3 TDs and 0 INTs. I'm still going to say he stinks. It's like saying water is wet. It's self-evident.
New England (Pick 'em) over BUFFALO
There were a lot of forces working toward me picking Buffalo for this one. The Bills looked great last week, the home crowd was loud and wild and everything you'd expect out of 70,000 Western New Yorkers, and Rex Ryan's team clearly has a newfound confidence. And with Marcell Dareus rejoining the mix with Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes, combined with the inexperienced offensive line protecting Tom Brady, it could be a difficult day for New England.
So I was really close to picking Buffalo. But then I went back and read my story from the Patriots' Week 6 win in Buffalo last October. The Bills came out flying that game, and they tore apart the shaky New England offensive line, which lost Dan Connolly early. Josh Kline, Marcus Cannon and Jordan "Tuba Man" Devey were playing on the line. The Patriots held a precarious 13-7 halftime lead, thanks only to three first-half turnovers from the Bills.
And then ... Tom Brady authored one of the finest halves of football in his career. He went 15-for-17 for 274 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. That was a Tom Brady who was just starting to learn how to adapt behind a questionable offensive line. Now -- as evidenced by his quick-passing attack vs. Pittsburgh last week, not to mention his road to a Super Bowl last year -- Brady is a master.
I expect a close game for two or three quarters before the Patriots pull away with a big road win, with Brady improving to 24-3 in his career over the Bills -- the team that, coincidentally, looked to almost end that career before it ever really began.
Arizona (-2) over CHICAGO
The Bears, quite simply, just don't do a lot for me.
San Diego (+2) over CINCINNATI
What can I say? I'm a sucker for Little Danny Woodhead Touchdowns (LDWTDs). You show me not one but two LDWTDs in one game, and I'm going to pick the Chargers the following week. It's just science.
"Weeeeeeeeee!!!"
-- Little Danny Woodhead
Sept. 13, 2015
Tennessee (-1) over CLEVELAND
It's a wonder that new uniforms and some camouflage practice jerseys didn't magically transform the Browns into a good NFL team. Losing by three touchdowns to the Jets is a surefire way to let me know that I should stay as far away from you as I possibly can. I know that Marcus Mariota is not suddenly the reincarnation of Steve Young here, but how this line is so low is beyond me.
Detroit (+3) over MINNESOTA
It's kind of diabolical to pit these two teams against each other, considering you'd have to be nuts to like either of them this week. Detroit blew a 21-3 lead on the road (aka "Pulling A Caldwell") while the Vikings barely showed up at all in San Francisco on Monday night. I'll just take the points, close my eyes and hope for the best. Hey, those last two things sound a whole lot like Jim Caldwell's entire coaching philosophy!
NEW ORLEANS (-10) over Tampa Bay
Eek. To borrow a phrase from my buddy Trent Dilfer, the Saints aren't good anymore! But the Bucs never were good. And a very loud Superdome should present some difficulties for a rookie quarterback coming off an awful NFL debut. Ten points, though ... not fair.
Atlanta (+2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
It's less about believing in the Falcons, who admittedly looked pretty dang good on Monday night, and it's more about doubting the Giants' ability to snap back from such a back-breaking, embarrassing way to lose a season opener. When your starting quarterback is spending his week getting interrogated by Mike Francesa, you might be in for a difficult week of football.
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) over San Francisco
It's tricky with the Steelers. They really ought to be 1-0, or they at least should have competed a lot better last Thursday if not for a series of boneheaded mistakes. Those mistakes include calling a trick play on a warm knife/butter opening drive, two missed field goals, a false start on the goal line, a receiver putting himself out of bounds before catching a wide-open touchdown, and completely forgetting that Rob Gronkowski was a member of the Patriots.
Now, there's always the risk that such brain farts rear their ugly head all season long. Or it could be a one-off. Based on Mike Tomlin's and Ben Roethlisberger's tales of the boogeyman in Foxboro after the game, I think it can just be attributed to being scared of the Patriots.
St. Louis (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
On the plus side, the Redskins had a surprisingly competent Week 1 performance. On the down side, "A Surprisingly Competent Week 1 Showing" may be the team's brightest moment for some time.
CAROLINA (-3) over Houston
As a rule, I never pick a team that makes a starting quarterback change after one week in the season. That's kind of an indication that maybe things aren't really in order.
Baltimore (-6.5) over OAKLAND
Consecutive games way outside of their home time zone has me a little concerned, but please refer to the forthcoming RQFLWP for the explanation.
RQFLWP: "I'm high on the Oakland Raiders right now. ... Amari Cooper … Khalil Mack … these are game-changing type players. And Derek Carr was fine last season. He was fine, I tell you!"
Note: It's not that I didn't know Jack Del Rio is the Raiders' head coach. It's just that ... it had been a while since I had seen Del Rio on the sideline ... and it had been so long since I had seen Del Rio in his natural habitat, ruining football games from the sideline. I am no longer high on the Oakland Raiders.
JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Miami
My "Let's Get Dangerous" pick of the week. There's no reason for this pick, other than the idea that bad things happen in Jacksonville in mid-September.
This is a bad pick.
Miami (-6) over JACKSONVILLE
I was just kidding.
PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) over Dallas
Picking the Eagles to cover more than a field goal makes me uneasy. But DeMarco Murray is going to run for four hundred yards.
GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Seattle
If you picture Kam Chancellor sitting on a couch and watching last weekend's Seahawks debacle with Marshawn Lynch's mom, it's very, very funny.
I've said all summer that the Seahawks were screwed this year, just from a mental standpoint. Seeing the mother of the star running back (the same running back who wore to practice the jersey of that star safety who's holding out for more dough) rip Darrell Bevell for all the world to see only strengthens my position.
RQFLWP: "[The Seahawks] can beat the Rams. I know the Rams won last year. I know, I know. But they did it with trick plays. Those work once. They won't work again."
Note: So ... just to be clear ... I can go back to showing absolutely no respect to Pete Carroll as a head coach? I know that we all came dangerously close to Pumped-Up Pete winning two Super Bowls and forever ruining all my fun. But I think we're back to Pre-Super Bowl Pete. I'm OK with that.
New York Jets (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS
Until the Colts prove they can stop the run, I refuse to trust them. In the meantime, I'll patiently await the NFL to launch a months-long investigation into this suspicious behavior from a Colts ball boy.
Clearly cheating. Time to get Ted Wells on the horn. We've got ourselves a whopper.
And once that investigation wraps up, we can find out who the hell put the Jets on Monday Night Football.
Last week: 6-9-1
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
