New England Weather Running Hot And Cold
Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook
Chances are you may be sick of hearing the words 'record' and 'weather' together. It's been one of those years in New England. Although the summer went by fairly peacefully without any major flood, tropical, or tornadic events...the temperature story has been an interesting one to follow. So many were asking 'does this frigid winter mean our summer will be cold and rainy?' and that certainly didn't end up being a concern. The opposite has been true - warm and dry since July. From my perspective, the swings between the constant cold to start the year and the constant heat on the back 9 of the year have been pretty interesting to watch.
Let's go back, even if you may not want to think about your face freezing just yet. Starting right away in January, it was a frigid four months to start 2015. What was cold and dry turned into an epic stretch of blizzards and persistent arctic outbreaks. February went down as the coldest month, of any month, ever recorded in the area at most reporting stations. Harbors were frozen solid and ice dams had turned into rocks. By March, we were all getting pretty weary of blasting the furnace or snuggling the family dog to stay comfortable. And when the Siberian Express finally let up a bit, we had notched an amazing stretch of 43 straight days without hitting a meager high of 40 degrees in Boston. Of course, that was another record.
After a welcome treat of warm weather in May, June began with highs that couldn't even escape the 40s - setting yet a couple more records. There was plenty of murmuring about a 'lost summer' ahead. But Mother Nature rallied for us. Beautiful weather got rolling and has lasted somewhat unabated ever since. It's now to the point where it's so warm and dry that we very much need rainfall to hopefully salvage the autumn foliage fireworks.
The interesting thing is, we've been on a completely opposite stretch from winter. Constant storms and very cold, to a lack thereof and very warm. Not only that, but the temperature trends have been following a similar script. It's the consistency of big departures from average more than the amplitude of those departures. As cold as last winter was, there was barely a daily record low to be found in southern New England. It just stayed at a persistently cold level without any reprieve. Since July, it's been doing the same on the warm side of the fence. Only two daily record highs (set last week) but a whole lot of warmth staying put without a timeout.
To put that to some more specific numbers, Wednesday was the 68th day to top 80 degrees so far this year in Boston. We're expecting at least two more to end the week. Is this unusual? Looking back through Boston's records (which date to 1871), the average number of days to reach or top 80F in a year is 57. So yes, having 70 or more of them is well above the typical mark.
In terms of the overall leader-board, 70 of them would land 2015 in 10th place for the number of days to reach the 80s. If we can get five more before the year finishes up, we'd end up in the #4 position all-time. It's not out of the question that Saturday could reach 80 in Boston, and Sunday is in play also. So we may be able to get to 72 days of 80+ warmth before the weekend is over. After that, it's going to be a lot harder to do. Next week looks much cooler with lots of onshore wind, and when that week is over it's nearly October. No doubt we can manage a few days above the 80 degree mark in October, but it gets a lot more difficult to do with waning hours of daylight and a lower sun angle.
The end game of all this is that a Top 5 finish for most 80 degree days in a year looks likely, and we should also end up with a Top 5 warmest September on record (after the 4th warmest August on record in Boston). I think the top spot is safe for both categories, with 1983 remaining the reigning champ and 2010 likely safe too. It's interesting that 1983 keeps showing up lately. It was the last time we had a September heat wave, and it was the last time southern California saw major rainfall (this week's rain in L.A. was the greatest in September since 1983). Somewhat interesting is that we were leaving a strong El Nino in 1983, but we're just entering one here in 2015. Will take a little more research to see if there may be some connection there.
Bottom line is that there hasn't been much middle ground for our area this year - big cold or big heat. Some 60s/70s and bouts of wet weather would be most welcome!
