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What Does The El Nino Mean For Us?

ecmwf_uvz500_noram_412015DAYS90Yesterday was definitely a July anomaly for eastern New England as high temperatures maxed out 6-14 degrees below average for July 25th. Boston's high was only 69 degrees! It just doesn't stay cool for long this time of the year. In fact, there will be a reversal this week as increasing hot and humid weather invades the Northeast after our recent break from the steam heat. However, this upper air prognostic map for August suggests cooler, drier weather will return the first week of August.

For those of who despise extended spells of sweltering weather, last summer and this summer have been fantastic. 2010, however, was a scorcher featuring 24 days at 90 or higher in Boston. That was a summer following a mature moderate El Nino. Another maturing El Nino in 1987-early 1988 yielded 25 days at 90 or higher in the summer of 1988. A very strong El Nino maturing in late 1982-early 1983 produced one of the most blazing intolerable summers on record in 1983 with over 30 days at 90 or higher in Boston with some areas northwest of Boston with more than 40 days!!! Can the conclusion be made that the current intensifying El Nino will create a very hot summer of 2016? The odds certainly favor that scenario yet the very strong El Nino of 1997-98 resulted in only 8 days at 90 or higher. What else is at play here?

July23,2015SSTThis latest sea-surface temperature anomaly chart (Credit: WeatherBell) reveals the well above average water temperatures in the central and especially eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean which is the typical El Nino signature. Interestingly, the pool of warm water in the eastern Pacific off the West Coast of North America signifying a strongly positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation plus the increasingly colder than average water in the North Atlantic which is signaling a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation were not present in other El Nino events. They have been mainly responsible for the harsh weather we endured last winter and the harsh winter that the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest to the Northern Plains experienced the year before. With no current sign that these pools of warm and cold water will modify soon, there are definitely some puzzling cross currents to study to determine the long range outlook this winter into next summer. It will be truly fascinating to see how this is all going to shake out. Will this strong El Nino trump the other veritable array of global factors or will the ocean temperature anomalies interaction produce an extraordinary pattern across the continents. If El Nino had not formed, I would lean toward another tough winter here in the Northeast but a bonafide wildcard has been added to the deck. There are many other sets and subsets of global factors that will be weighed for impact this fall to determine a forecast for the upcoming winter. The WBZ AccuWeather Team will release that forecast on our "Eye On Weather: Winter 2016" Special airing probably in mid-November.

In the shorter term, during the previous four developing moderate to very strong El Ninos, the Augusts all contained 4-7 days at 90 degrees or higher. Again, though, all of those years the current SST anomalies were not positioned as the present setup so we cannot conclude this August will be the same. I will stick with my prediction released back in the spring that Boston would receive 8 up to 12 days at 90 or higher. With the potential of a couple of those days happening before the end of July, I think it is plausible to expect 4 days of 90+ later in August and perhaps 1-2 in the first part of September making a total of 9-10 for 2015. We shall see.

Get the A/C and fans ready. You'll need them for the final few days of July.

Make it a great week!

 

 

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