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Hurley: Weighing The Possibilities Of Roger Goodell's Next Move

BOSTON (CBS) -- One-hundred-and-eighty-three days. It's enough time to complete an entire year of schooling. Alas, it is not enough time to complete an investigation and issue a simple ruling after some footballs likely had slightly less air in them than normal.

This is where we're at as a society. Our forefathers would be so proud.

The saddest part of the whole "DeflateGate" mess is that Roger Goodell holds the sports world in the palm of his hand, to the point where he doesn't even have to do anything at all in order to own the news cycle for a week. And he knows it. By merely uttering the words "Soon" and "Maybe" to a CNBC reporter two weeks ago, the sports world went on high alert last week while waiting for the commissioner's appeal ruling on Tom Brady to be announced. And every day, they waited and waited. Yet it never came.

Goodell also seems keenly aware that as soon as he makes his ruling, he loses all power in the situation. Right now, holding his cards is the only leverage he has left, presumably making a decision to go to court more difficult for Tom Brady, who has to report to training camp next week. The commissioner certainly has no incentive to rush.

So now, almost a full month removed from Brady's actual appeal hearing in New York City, the time continues to be passed with folks trying to forecast what Goodell will rule when he finally makes his announcement. This is, of course, a silly practice, because nothing in this six-month soap opera has ever fallen in line with what could have been reasonably expected.

Having dedicated an embarrassing amount of time following this story, I thought it worthy to discuss why certain rulings might make the most and the least sense for Goodell to make. Don't confuse this as being some sort of prediction. I've learned by now that one can never claim to know what Goodell will do next.

The Ruling: Keep The Suspension At Four Games

Why It Makes Sense
I still feel that if Roger Goodell wants to have any chance at all in federal court, he'll have to maintain the initial suspension of four games. Think about it: Even though Troy Vincent had his hands all over the suspension, Goodell claims that he made the decision himself. Vincent merely "suggested" four games, and that just so happened to coincide with Goodell's line of thinking. Surrre.

Leaving this tiptoeing around the CBA aside, Goodell made the decision himself and then later reiterated, "There can be no dispute that this is an appeal of Commissioner discipline." So after weighing the information in the Wells report, Roger Goodell decided to issue an unprecedented four-game suspension to Tom Brady.

The player, obviously, did not care for that decision and therefore appealed the punishment. The man who heard that appeal was, of course, Mr. Goodell.

For Goodell to lessen the punishment after hearing from Brady -- mind you, Ted Wells and his team talked to Brady for a full day during the investigation -- would tear apart the integrity of the entire process. Lightening the punishment admits some combination of:

--An improper investigation, which did not uncover all relevant facts
--A hasty ruling by the commissioner, who relied on no precedent for such a punishment
--An unfair punishment, based on the available information

Why, exactly, would the commissioner want to admit any of that? And what do you think a federal judge would say after seeing Goodell himself admit these faults?

Why It Doesn't Make Sense
Well, that's simple. Keeping the suspension at four games does not make sense because suspending a player for four games for likely being "at least generally aware" of a minor offense which more-likely-than-not happened is ridiculous. Simple enough.

The Ruling: Lessening The Supension To Two Or Three Games

Why It Makes Sense
Goodell is all about fairness -- or, more specifically, attempting to create the appearance of fairness. And when he spoke in San Francisco at the end of May, he seemed to be laying the groundwork for this type of decision. He said he looked forward to hearing "directly from Tom" and that he would consider any "new information."

Except, well, that's not really what the appeal is supposed to be about. Brady was never on trial, and his job at the appeal hearing should not have been to present new information but instead to fight the suspension ruling based on precedent, fairness, etc.

But, OK, when you accept the fact that the NFL's justice system is a kangaroo court, this all makes sense. By dropping the suspension by a game or two, Goodell "proves" that he can stand strong against a superstar while also "proving" he is reasonable and can right a wrong.

Why It Doesn't Make Sense
The NFLPA stole Goodell's thunder last week by leaking news that they will fight any suspension. So, given what I've already said before about a lessened suspension necessarily exposing/admitting fault with the entire process, why would Goodell risk that when he knows the ruling will eventually end up in court?

This ruling might make more sense otherwise, but given that the NFLPA has already shown its hand, I don't see what Goodell would gain from this.

(The NFLPA's declaration last week also could have resulted in a delay of Goodell's announcement, if you think about it from this perspective.)

The Ruling: Lessening The Suspension To One Game

Why It Makes Sense
I've been on the one-game train for some time, and it's for one reason and one reason only: It really puts Brady in a tough spot.

Obviously, Brady cares about his image, legacy, reputation, and so on. Remember, he shrilly screamed about "HONOR!" prior to the Super Bowl in his pump-up speech to teammates.

At the same time, if his suspension was reduced to just one game, he'd have a whale of a decision to make. Does he continue the fight, take the case to court and extend this saga for another few months? Does he let it sit in the background throughout the regular season and perhaps the postseason?

Or does he -- albeit begrudgingly -- accept the one-game ban, sit out for Week 1, and let the story die?

It would be an interesting pickle for Brady, and it might be the only change Goodell has to make to keep the case out of court.

Why It Doesn't Make Sense
There are a number of reasons that this might not make sense, but to me, what stands out the most is that this would be the commissioner reducing his own suspension by 75 percent. By doing that, he would be telling the world, flatly, "I got this one wrong ... and I wasn't even close to getting it right. I am horrible at decision-making, and boy, I really whiffed on this one. Whoops!"

Granted, Goodell has made that very announcement numerous times over the past 12 months, though not in such plain language. I don't know if he'll be eager to start doing that now.

The Ruling: Reduce The Suspension To Zero Games

Why It Makes Sense
There's only one reason Goodell would ever rule this way, and that's if he was advised to avoid court at all costs to spare himself the PR disaster that would result. I suppose that could be the case, but if going from four to one looks bad, dropping it from four to zero looks much, much worse.

Why It Doesn't Make Sense
Suspending someone for 25 percent of the season and then changing it to a suspension of zero percent of the season would be rather peculiar, even by Goodell's own loopy standards. And if he's going to take a PR hit by losing in court, he might as well delay that moment for as long as possible, when presumably fewer people will be following the story.

The Prediction

Ha! You thought you were going to get one. That's humorous.

The only prediction is this: Goodell is going to take his sweet time before announcing his ruling, because as soon as he hits "Send" on that message, the entire case is no longer in his hands. And clearly, as evidenced by the fact that it's taking a full month to let the world know of his basic decision which he likely made in his own head back in the spring, Roger is not someone who likes to hop out of the driver's seat. We're all just getting towed along for the ride.

Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.

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