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Rocking the Fenway Forecast

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Now an annual tradition, some big names are coming to Fenway Park this week. No, not Harper, Trout, or Scherzer. Joel and Grohl will step up to the plate (more accurately, center field) and blast some tunes to the rock and roll faithful. Outdoor concerts are always a tricky proposition this time of year, but I'm happy to report you probably won't have to pack an urban sombrero to fend of downpours. Here's a look at what to expect.

Setting The Table - Getting Humidity & Storms Out Of The Way:

Before the Piano Man arrives on Thursday, we'll have some soupy weather to deal with. Dew points will be up into the 60s on Tuesday, producing a sticky and somewhat uncomfortable feel. Temps won't be too bad which will keep heat indices from being a big issue (highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s) but the air won't feel too fresh. A few downpours may be able to spark up during the afternoon, but one-third or less of the towns around the area will end up seeing any rain with otherwise partly sunny and hazy skies.

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Wednesday is the most tropical day of the week as dew points climb up around 70F (oppressive humidity). It's also going to bring along our best chance for rain with scattered storms and heavy downpours popping up along a cold front. It doesn't look like this system will deliver rain to every town either, but when it rains it will pour and you could quickly pick up an inch or two in short order. As of this writing, the best chance for rain will be along a line from Boston to Providence and points southeast of there. Some of these downpours could become storms with lightning and thunder, but I'm not expecting widespread severe storms.

Clearing The Air - FROPA Wednesday PM:

What the heck is FROPA? Weather geek speak for 'frontal passage' which in this case means dry and comfortable air filtering it. By Thursday morning dew points will be sinking into the 50s, and even into the 40s for some as the day goes on. That's very dry by July standards and it'll be an extremely comfortable day with highs in the mid/upper 70s, a bit below average for this time of year.

The timing is sweet for Billy Joel fans - the front will be offshore and it looks like an awesome night for a show in Boston. Mainly clear skies, low humidity, no rain, and temps will be falling back toward 70 when he takes the stage. Perfection! Looks like you could even wear jeans comfortably without heating up...especially as the sun goes down. Good conditions to belt out the classics from the bleachers to the box seats.

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Any Monkey Wrench? The Foocast:

Next up, the Foo Fighters roll into town for two shows - one on Saturday and one on Sunday. This forecast isn't quite as easy as the Billy Joel outlook, since A) it's farther out and B) the next disturbance in the atmosphere will be starting to move in. It looks like big heat will continue to be evasive, so at least we've got that going for us. Saturday's highs will be seasonal (80s) and it looks like winds should turn onshore in Boston, dropping temps into the 70s. No need to worry about sweating it out in the sultry 90s for this one.

In terms of storms - there is a chance some isolated thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon as some energy moves into New England. That being said, I think the chances are pretty low for now. If the wind goes onshore the sea breeze would bring in more stable air over the city and knock down any storms that form west of town (this wouldn't be an organized, strong cold front...more of a middling system bringing just enough lift to cause some concern). I'm keeping the forecast dry in Boston at this point with temps in the 70s by the evening.

Sunday is probably the day we'll have to watch more carefully. Indications are for a little higher risk for pop-up afternoon storms, but these don't look terribly widespread either. It's just a day to monitor at this rate and we'll update the storm chances as we get closer to the weekend. All told a pretty good run for 3 big shows at the ballpark!

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