Weekend Weather Picks
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Rule #1 of New England holidays: It will never be 100% calm and quiet. Ever. Never doubt this rule. What looked like a slam dunk weekend is looking a little more uncertain as we get closer. We've been talking all week about the storm nearby to the south (really more of a weak wave of low pressure sliding off to our south)...and the latest trends bring this a bit farther north. We all know those wiggles can have significant impact on our weather, so here's an updated look at what we're dealing with.
Friday - My personal pick
I don't think weather gets much better than what Friday is offering up. High pressure will settle in behind a departing wave, exiting the Cape around dawn. Tons of sunshine will beam on down all day, with highs near 80 inland and 70s at the coast with some afternoon sea breezes. With dew points mainly in the 40s, the air will be bone dry without any typical summer stickiness. Fireworks displays will be A+, with clear skies and comfortable air (most towns in the 60s by 9pm). The only issue may be calming winds around fireworks time, which should allow for smoke to hang around during the displays.
Dewpoints in the 40s in July? Yes sir may I have another. Source: Weatherbell
Sunday - The Beach Day
The warmest day of this holiday weekend is expected to be Sunday, as offshore winds bring warmth right down to the coast. Most will top out in the low/mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. There will be a disturbance rotating overhead during the day, but with very dry air in place there isn't expected to be a lot of fanfare. The best chance for pop-up showers will be across northern New England, where more clouds and a gustier breeze will also be factors for the lakes region and much of Maine. But if you want to roast on local MA beaches, Sunday is a great bet.
Saturday - The Tricky Day
So what's going on here? There are a few players on the field. Some lingering blocking over Greenland should help try to suppress rain to our south during the day. And the air mass in place is very dry at the surface. Those are things working in our favor. As for the machines - models are in split camps. Ensembles are 50/50 when talking about rain heading into MA. The NAM and RPM have been keeping us completely dry. The ECMWF indicates some showers, and the GFS has been all over the place (including a disastrous looking soaking wet run on Thursday afternoon - an outlier). So we have a conundrum.
Wave of low pressure showing up as a GFS MSLP anomaly output. How far north this comes is the big question. Source: Weatherbell
Looking at analogs, there aren't strong indicators for significant rain with this pattern. And all these systems have been progressive. So the bottom line is that we'll have to watch future updates through Friday as the story isn't completely closed yet. And while there's still a good shot it stays mostly offshore, I'd make a contingency plan for some wet weather just to play it safe.
The sure bets are that Saturday will be on the cooler side (70s) and especially so at the coast with an easterly wind keeping temps in the 60s to around 70. Saturday will also be the cloudiest day of the holiday weekend - with lots of high and mid-level clouds in place for a good part of the day. And the chance of showers is highest for the Cape, Islands, and South Coast. Those chances drop off dramatically as you head north of Route 2, and I'm not expecting any fireworks display issues there on Saturday night.
We'll be keeping an eye on it and hoping that Murphy's Law won't apply for this holiday weekend. It's been a rough stretch of Independence Days with a tropical storm dumping rain and flash flooding last year, a nasty heat wave the year before, and an evacuation of the Esplanade in Boston due to thunderstorms the year before that. I'd prefer not to add to that list! Just remember that the weather is what it is, and we'll celebrate our beautiful country no matter what nature has to say about it.
