Nonexistent 90s Again
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Full disclaimer: I'd be the happiest guy around if we never hit 90º at all. Some love some good old fashioned HHH weather in the summah, but I'll take a pile of 70s and 80s, and even some 60s if I have to. I don't need to sweat through 3 shirts a day. While we typically see about 10 days reaching and/or topping 90F in the city of Boston each year, not a single one has popped up just yet in 2015. Same can be said for this time last year, when we had yet to record such a day (we broke through on July 2nd, with a pair of 90+ days before Hurricane Arthur's arrival). And there isn't a shot at one anytime soon.
Looking back at June, it was quite the flip from our late spring weather. May featured record warmth and record dry conditions across much of the region. But June ended up 3F below average in Boston, the 5th coolest since records moved to Logan in 1936. The big hurt came up front, with record chill/highs in the 40s for the first couple days of the month. The sprinklers got to take a break - more than 5" of rain fell in the city with over 7" of rain in some of the suburbs. Dry spell = see ya later. Grass is green, rivers are happy.
Where did the heat go? How about Seattle. To be fair, the Emerald City gets a bad rap. It isn't nearly as rainy as some people think (averages less than most Northeast cities) and summer is downright perfection there. But this has been an exceptional stretch for much of the west. Seattle has seen nearly as many 80F days as Boston this year (15 vs 17) and has beat us to the 90s (last weekend). This has enabled them to obliterate their warmest June on record, and also record its warmest Jan-June stretch on record (and warmest February on record, warmest winter on record, warmest March on record, etc). All of the west has been roasting under a strong ridge in the jet stream, which in the presence of drought has also helped to fuel wildfires raging in Washington and Canada.
It's a continuation of the pattern we saw in winter, although it hasn't been quite as persistent/extreme now that we're in summer. There have been more daily fluctuations, with lots of extremely pleasant days mixed in with the chilly and gray ones. And there are signs that the pleasant times are going to take control as we head into the holiday weekend. Color me shocked - I was under the impression it should rain every holiday here in New England.
That isn't to say it won't be a close call. We're eying some storminess to our south Thursday through Saturday which will be nearby enough to be wary of. But all indications at this point are that high pressure will manage to shield us from the rain. The best shot at some of these showers shifting north to graze the South Coast would be late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Fortunately, even in that scenario, there would be little impact on fireworks displays, BBQs, or travel.
Does this mean we'll grab our first 90 in Boston? Doubtful. But we'll get a nice stretch of upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday through the start of next week - right on track for this time of the year. After that, it's looking likely that the mean trough position will reassert itself over the Great Lakes, with a big ridge holding tough over the west. This would bring the coolest air vs. average to areas west of us, but the setup would also keep big heat out of New England. We should be able to manage 70s and 80s, but 90s into the city will be a tall order. In most situations, you need a WSW wind to do that in coastal MA. With frequent fronts or weak flow days/sea breezes, you're not going to be able to push that summer heat right to the shore.
The Atlantic ridge going forward looks pretty weak, and a strong Bermuda high seems unlikely until at least mid-July. We picked up a pair of 90F days in July of 2014 and I think we'll be lucky to manage even that in July of 2015. So if you like a low AC bill, you may be in luck. If you like a good roast, you may have make your way to the Gulf Coast states. Or cross the Rockies, odd as it sounds.
