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Hurley: Roger Goodell Has No Choice But To Uphold Tom Brady's Four-Game Suspension

BOSTON (CBS) -- Roger Goodell has been here before – sort of.

He's been here in the sense that he has seen some high-profile players appeal his overbearing disciplinary decisions. In those cases -- particularly the most recent ones involving Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson -- the public knew a certain amount about what those players had done wrong. Truth be told, the public did not have much sympathy for those players. Therefore even though Goodell was in the wrong and even though he was proven to be wrong by neutral arbitrators, he still never quite had as much egg on his face as was perhaps warranted.

This time, things are very different.With news breaking late Friday afternoon that Goodell would not recuse himself as the arbitrator in Tom Brady's appeal hearing, and with word coming Monday evening that the NFL and NFLPA are likely to agree to push the date of that hearing back, it's clear that the train is a-rolling toward Goodell vs. Brady actually taking place.

While yes, there is a significant segment of the general population that would love to see golden boy Tom Brady go down in flames, most anyone who's done any research whatsoever on the case known as "DeflateGate" knows that there has not been one shred of evidence that implicates Brady in this mess.

And because this player is so high profile and because his eventual court case will draw so much attention, Roger Goodell has one choice and one choice only when it comes to hearing Brady's appeal.

Goodell must keep the four-game suspension intact.

Put aside the fact that a four-month, high-cost investigation examined a year's worth of text messages and circumstance and found only that something likely happened, and that Brady "generally" knew about it. Put aside the fact that there was no damning evidence on Brady in the Wells report. Put aside the fact that Goodell is not a lawyer and is wholly unqualified to be hearing the appeal. Put aside the fact that he is tiptoeing around the details of the CBA with the "Troy Vincent-issued punishment" baloney.

Put all of that aside for a moment and suspend reality long enough to live in the Candyland that Goodell likes to believe is real life. In this scenario, Goodell is The Law™, and after dropping the hammer two weeks ago, The Law™ can't bend.

If he cuts back that suspension to, say, two games, he is admitting:

A) His initial punishment was over-the-top, not rooted in any precedent, and was too harsh.

B) The investigation that cost a rumored $5 million was insufficient and did not produce enough evidence to make a fair, sound disciplinary decision.

Furthermore, it seems reasonable to assume that even if he were given a shorter suspension, Brady would not even accept it. So if Brady were to take this to court, where it seems to inevitably be heading, the fact that Goodell weakened his own standing by lessening his own punishment and his own league-sponsored investigation would not sit well with any neutral judge observing the case.

Backing down now and admitting that he made a heavy-handed ruling would bring about a healthy dose of embarrassment for the commissioner. It's one thing when former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue, or U.S. District Judge David Doty, or former federal judge Barbara Jones states on the record that Goodell was wrong. What would happen if Goodell himself admitted this?

Even still, Goodell stands to look better by having the Brady story leading the national news. He would much prefer people harping on the appeal over having anyone analyze how his league "investigated" but found no wrongdoing from Ray McDonald last year.

You'll remember -- quite well -- that Goodell badly, badly mishandled the incident involving Ray Rice punching his then-fiancee on an elevator, rendering her unconscious, before dragging her limp body into a casino hallway. Goodell called Rice and his wife in to meet together, and after gauging Rice's sincerity, the commissioner issued Rice a two-game suspension. According to Goodell, the league did not ever attempt to acquire the security footage from inside the elevator. According to Goodell, the league never saw that footage. According to Goodell, The Associated Press fabricated a story where an NFL employee confirmed the receipt of the video in question.

But once Goodell faced an avalanche of public criticism, and after it appeared as though he may lose his job, Goodell admitted some fault. He wrote a letter to all teams, stating in disturbingly simple terms that domestic violence is wrong and bad -- as if this was a revelatory statement which needed to be said out loud in 2014. But ignoring the tone deaf nature of that statement, Goodell at least made it clear: From this point forward, the NFL and the commissioner will not allow domestic abusers to play in our league. There is no place for them.

Goodell wrote that letter to teams on Aug. 28. Three days later, Ray McDonald was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence. The victim in the alleged incident -- McDonald's pregnant fiancee -- had "visible injuries," according to police. Yet Goodell did not act swiftly to punish McDonald, instead hiding behind the facade of "due process."

For a player to be punished by the league for a domestic violence case, Goodell said that player would have to be "not only charged, but we would wait for the legal system to complete its process, particularly in any case on a [first-time offender]. That's something that's very important to us."

That's something that's very important to us.

Since the NFL's investigation turned up nothing on McDonald last fall, he has since been named as a suspect in a sexual assault case. And on Monday, after given another chance to play from the NFL and the Chicago Bears, McDonald was arrested again for suspicion of domestic violence, this time allegedly hitting the same woman who was this time holding a child.

Why Goodell chose not to invest even a fraction of the time and money to investigate McDonald's situation as he did with PSI in footballs, we will never get a straight answer. And Goodell would like to keep it that way. (The only time and money the league invested after the Ray Rice scenario came in the form of paying Robert Mueller a ton of money to show that the league did not act improperly.)

He would also like to keep up the illusion that he is a man of integrity, that he is a man who rules fairly and without prejudice, and above all else, that he is The Law™. And to do so, he must -- whenever he hears this appeal -- keep Tom Brady's suspension at four games.

And if you don't mind, he'd prefer you spend your time and energy talking about Brady, not McDonald. Thank you very much, beware of the Molasses Swamp, enjoy the Gumdrop Mountains, and good luck on your quest to the Candy Castle.

Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.

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